LSU Tigers vs. UCLA Bruins Prediction: Who Wins, and Why?

What to expect as the LSU Tigers and UCLA Bruins meet in this Week 4 college football game with our updated prediction.

LSU Tigers vs. UCLA Bruins Prediction / Matt Pendleton-Imagn Images

Now a Big Ten vs. SEC matchup after a historic round of conference realignment, UCLA hits the road and lands in the Bayou to square off against No. 16 LSU in college football’s Week 4 action. Here’s what you need to know about the game, along with our updated prediction.

Getting trounced by Indiana is never a good look in football, especially when you’re making your Big Ten debut, as UCLA was last week when it came out on the wrong end of a 42-13 decision.

Now the Bruins have scored just 28 combined points in 2 games and the program is looking at a Page 1 re-write as head coach Deshaun Foster picks up the pieces left by Chip Kelly and a wave of outgoing talent all over this roster.

LSU sits at 2-1 and already owns a loss against USC, the other Big Ten newbie based in L.A., and is coming off a hard-fought 3-point win at South Carolina in its SEC opener marked by missed opportunities, defensive slip-ups, and errors all around.

But the Tigers return home to Death Valley, arguably college football’s most intimidating home field advantage, as big favorites hoping to avoid falling to .500 in this non-conference matchup.

LSU vs. UCLA prediction, preview

1. The Blue Zone. That’s LSU coach Brian Kelly’s name for the area inside the opponents’ 5-yard line, and it’s a place where this offense has struggled. 

So far this season, the team has come away not scoring a single point in three such opportunities, including two last week. One of those resulted in Garrett Nussmeier throwing an interception. 

UCLA is 108th nationally in red zone defense, indicating a major weakness when the other team is in scoring position.

2. Battle at the line. One team strength for UCLA appears to be its defensive front seven, a capable group that has been getting some consistent pressure at times.

The unit has 15 tackles for loss and is 28th nationally in allowing just 87 rushing yards per game.

That could be a bright spot for the Bruins against a vulnerable LSU ground game that has failed to really come together.

But it will be challenged against an offensive line that is an LSU team strength, in particular at both tackle positions.

3. Goin’ deep. With those struggles running the ball, LSU has relied on Nussmeier’s arm, and the quarterback has responded, throwing 10 touchdowns against 2 interceptions with 895 yards and is hitting almost 70 percent of his pass attempts.

His primary target is Kyren Lacy, who has scored 5 times in 3 games and leads the team with 17 receptions.

The duo should find room against a UCLA pass defense that allows 267 passing yards per game, ranking 112th nationally, and is 64th by surrendering 6.4 yards per completion. 

LSU vs. UCLA odds

Lines are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

LSU: -21.5 (-102)
UCLA: +21.5 (-120)

Over 56.5 points: -110
Under 56.5 points: -110

LSU vs. UCLA Prediction

UCLA comes into this one ranked 126th in passing efficiency, last in the Big Ten in scoring, and 122nd in rushing production, and not against great competition so far.

Apart from a relative strength putting bodies against the run, it’s hard to find an area of the field where the Bruins own a real advantage against LSU. Actually, it’s impossible.

This should be an opportunity for the Tigers to work on their weaknesses, principally repairing a defense that has given up some big plays, and establishing a more consistent effort on the ground.

College Football HQ picks ...

• LSU wins 38-14
• Covers the spread
• And hits the under

More ... LSU vs. UCLA score prediction by expert football model

LSU vs. UCLA schedule

When: Sat., Sept. 21
Time: 2:30 p.m. CT | 12:30 p.m. PT
TV: ABC network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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