LSU vs. Arkansas football prediction: What the analytics say

Expert prediction for LSU vs. Arkansas by the football model that picks winners.

LSU vs. Arkansas football predictions / SCOTT CLAUSE/USA TODAY Network / USA TODAY NETWORK

SEC football returns to the gridiron this weekend as No. 8 LSU looks to improve its playoff resume against Arkansas in college football’s Week 8 action on Saturday. Let’s take a look at the latest prediction for the game by an expert football model that picks winners.

LSU improved to 2-0 in SEC play with a statement overtime victory against Ole Miss last weekend and ranks 6th in FBS in passing output, averaging 337 yards per game behind the play of quarterback Garrett Nussmeier.

Arkansas is 12 combined points away from being undefeated, and is 2-1 in SEC games after a statement victory against then-No. 4 Tennessee the last time out.

Looking ahead to this week’s matchup, let’s check out the latest college football predictions from the Football Power Index computer prediction model.

The model simulates every NCAA college football game 20,000 times and uses key analytics from both teams and picks winners based on a projected scoring margin per game.

LSU vs. Arkansas predictions

So far, the models are projecting a very closely-fought game between these SEC rivals.

LSU is projected to win the game outright in the slight majority 54.2 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations of the matchup.

That leaves Arkansas as the expected winner in the remaining 45.8 percent of sims.

In total, LSU came out ahead in 10,840 of the index’s simulations of the game, while Arkansas won out in the other 9,160 predictions.

The models forecast a very close result when considering the scoring margin, too.

LSU is projected to be just 1.6 points better than Arkansas on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.

If so, that wouldn’t be enough for the Tigers to cover the spread against the Razorbacks.

That’s because LSU is a 2.5 point favorite against Arkansas, according to the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 55.5 points for the game.

And it set the moneyline odds for LSU at -135 and for Arkansas at +115 to win outright.

A plurality of bettors expect the Tigers will take care of the Razorbacks on the road, according to the latest spread consensus picks for the game.

LSU is getting 57 percent of bets to win the game and cover the spread.

The other 43 percent of wagers expect Arkansas will either win in an upset or keep the game within the line.

LSU is sixth among SEC teams with a 25.7 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff and will win 8.3 games this season, according to the FPI’s metrics.

That model gives Arkansas a 2.8 percent chance at the playoff and a win total prediction of 6.8 games.

College Football Power Index

Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance. 

Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting, and a team’s schedule.

Teams are ranked not in order of talent like in other rankings, but by a projected point margin per game against an average team on a neutral field.

AP top 25 rankings

First-place votes in parentheses

1. Texas (56)
2. Oregon (6)
3. Penn State
4. Ohio State
5. Georgia
6. Miami
7. Alabama
8. LSU
9. Iowa State
10. Clemson
11. Tennessee
12. Notre Dame
13. BYU
14. Texas A&M
15. Boise State
16. Indiana
17. Kansas State
18. Ole Miss
19. Missouri
20. Pittsburgh
21. SMU
22. Illinois
23. Army
24. Michigan
25. Navy

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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