LSU vs. Arkansas score prediction by expert college football model

What the analytics predict for LSU vs. Arkansas in this Week 8 college football game by an expert model that picks winners and projects scores.

LSU vs. Arkansas score prediction / Nelson Chenault-Imagn Images

SEC football returns this weekend as No. 8 LSU goes on the road against Arkansas in a battle between teams coming off signature conference wins. Let’s check in with the latest prediction for the game using an expert model that picks winners and projects scores.

LSU moved up in the rankings after a statement overtime victory against Ole Miss last week, culminating in a five-game win streak, and moving to 2-0 in SEC play behind the No. 6 ranked passing offense in FBS, averaging 337 yards per game.

Arkansas is 12 combined points away from being undefeated and coming off the win of its season after knocking off then-No. 4 Tennessee at home, moving to 2-1 in SEC play.

What do the analytics suggest for this notable SEC matchup?

For that, let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how LSU and Arkansas compare in this Week 8 college football game.

LSU vs. Arkansas score prediction

So far, the models are siding with the Tigers over the Razorbacks, but by a narrow margin.

SP+ predicts that LSU will defeat Arkansas by a projected score of 32 to 27 and to win the game by an expected 4.3 points.

The model gives the Tigers a 61 percent chance of outright victory on the road.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 180-167-3 against the spread with a 51.9 win percentage after going 26-26 (50%) last weekend.

LSU vs. Arkansas picks, odds

LSU is a 2.5 point favorite against Arkansas, according to the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 55.5 points for the game.

And it set the moneyline odds for LSU at -130 and for Arkansas at +110 to win outright.

If you’re using this prediction to bet on the game, you should take ...

• LSU -2.5
• LSU to win -130
• Bet over 55.5 points

A slight majority of bettors expect the Tigers to handle the Razorbacks, according to the latest spread consensus picks for the game.

56 percent of bets predict that LSU will defeat Arkansas and cover the narrow spread.

The other 44 percent of wagers suggest the Hogs will either upset the Tigers at home, or will keep the game within the line.

Computer prediction

Other analytical models also favor the Tigers in a narrow result over the Razorbacks.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

LSU is projected to win the game in a majority 54.1 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations of the matchup.

That leaves Arkansas as the expected winner in the remaining 45.9 percent of sims.

LSU is projected to be 1.6 points better than Arkansas on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.

LSU is sixth among SEC teams with a 24.8 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff and will win 8.2 games this season, according to the FPI’s metrics.

That model projects a win total prediction of 6.8 games for Arkansas, which has an 89 percent chance to become eligible for a bowl game this season.

How to watch LSU vs. Arkansas

When: Sat., Oct. 19
Time: 6 p.m. Central
TV: ESPN network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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