LSU vs. Arkansas prediction: Who wins, and why?

What to watch for as LSU and Arkansas meet in this Week 8 college football game with our updated prediction for the matchup.

LSU vs. Arkansas Prediction / Stephen Lew-Imagn Images

Two weeks after upsetting a top-10 team, Arkansas is back at home against No. 8 LSU looking to do it again in college football’s Week 8 action on Saturday. Here’s what you should watch out for in the game, with our updated prediction for the matchup.

Arkansas took down then-No. 4 Tennessee two weeks ago, moving to 2-1 in SEC play and has played LSU close in this series, despite losing 7 of the last 8, the last 4 meetings have been decided by a single possession.

LSU is 2-0 in conference games after a signature overtime win against Ole Miss last week that firmly entrenched this team not only in the SEC title chase, but in the College Football Playoff picture.

What can we expect as the Razorbacks host the Tigers this weekend?

Here’s what you should watch out for as LSU and Arkansas meet in this Week 8 college football game, with our updated prediction.

LSU vs. Arkansas prediction: What to watch

1. Air it out. There’s some concern around Hogs quarterback Taylen Green as he recovers from a knee injury suffered in the Tennessee game, especially as he averages 4th among SEC signal callers with 250 passing yards per game.

If he can’t go, Malachi Singleton will get the nod. He went 2 of 3 against the Vols and ran for the go-ahead touchdown, but whoever starts should find angles against an LSU pass defense that is 15th among 16 SEC teams this season.

2. Get to the QB. Garrett Nussmier is, for all intents and purposes, the beating heart of LSU’s offense, as the quarterback is averaging 6th in FBS with 331 yards per game and he’s 3rd nationally with 18 touchdown passes. 

Arkansas is 10th in the SEC in pass defense, and could have trouble getting to Nussmeier as it averages just 5 tackles for loss per game, and the quarterback has been sacked just twice this year working behind an expert line.

But the Razorbacks could score a takeaway or two as the quarterback has at least 1 interception in 4 of his 6 starts and consecutive games with 2 picks.

3. On the ground. Arkansas is a respectable 27th in FBS against the run, allowing just 5 rushing touchdowns and only 106 yards per game for a 3.47 yard per carry average.

LSU is meager running the ball, 100th nationally with 123 yards on average and could struggle finding lanes against a decently-coordinated Razorback run-stop.

What the analytics say

Most analytical models are projecting the Tigers will take down the Razorbacks and stay perfect.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from each team to simulate games 20,000 times and picks winners.

LSU is projected to win the game in 54.2 percent of the computer’s simulations of the matchup.

That leaves Arkansas as the expected winner in the remaining 45.8 percent of sims.

Expect a close game, as LSU is projected to be just 1.6 points better than Arkansas on the same field, according to the model’s latest forecast.

More ... LSU vs. Arkansas predictions: What the analytics say

Who is favored?

LSU is a 2.5 point favorite against Arkansas, according to the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 56.5 points for the game (Over -115, Under -105).

And it set the moneyline odds for LSU at -135 and for Arkansas at +115 to win outright.

A slight majority of bettors expect the Tigers will handle the Hogs on the road, according to the latest spread consensus picks for the game.

LSU is getting 55 percent of bets to win the game and cover the spread.

The other 45 percent of wagers project Arkansas will either win in an upset, or keep the game within the narrow line.

LSU vs. Arkansas prediction: Who wins?

While LSU’s mediocre secondary gets a lot of the negative attention, it’s actually the team’s run defense that could play an outsized role in this game.

The unit is fourth-worst among SEC teams when stopping opposing backs, and that could be a troublesome factor going against the Razorbacks’ rushing capacity, be it lead back Ja’Quinden Jackson or one of the team’s two mobile quarterbacks.

Still, the Hogs’ secondary is also vulnerable and will struggle against an LSU vertical game that is among the best in the country and that, so far, has made up for other relative team weaknesses.

College Football HQ picks ...

• LSU wins 27-23
• Covers the spread
• And hits the under

More ... LSU vs. Arkansas score prediction by expert model

How to watch LSU vs. Arkansas

When: Sat., Oct. 19
Time: 6 p.m. Central
TV: ESPN network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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