LSU vs. Baylor score prediction by expert football model
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LSU and Baylor are set to appear in the 2024 Texas Bowl game on New Year’s Eve. Here’s the latest prediction for the matchup from an expert football model that picks winners.
LSU had College Football Playoff ambitions midseason, but a three-game losing streak ended those hopes before it rebounded to win the final two games and move to 8 wins behind a passing offense that ranks 7th nationally in total production.
Baylor also finished 8-4 but in dramatic fashion, starting the year just 2-4 with losses to three ranked teams, but winning its final six straight games, ranking top 50 in FBS in offensive output and top 25 in scoring, averaging nearly five touchdowns per game.
What do the analytics suggest will happen as the Tigers and Bears meet in this postseason matchup?
For that, let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how LSU and Baylor compare in college football’s Texas Bowl game.
LSU vs. Baylor score prediction
As expected, the models are siding with the SEC team against its Big 12 challenger in this bowl game.
SP+ predicts that LSU will defeat Baylor by a projected score of 32 to 26 and will win the game by an expected margin of 6.1 points in the process.
The model gives the Tigers a solid 65 percent chance of outright victory against the Bears.
SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”
How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 3392-365-9 against the spread with a 51.8 win percentage.
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Texas Bowl odds, how to pick the game
Notably, the sportsbooks are taking the Big 12 team over the SEC school in this matchup.
Baylor is a 3.5 point favorite against LSU, according to the updated lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook for the game.
FanDuel lists the total at 59.5 points (Over -110, Under -110).
And it set the moneyline odds for Baylor at -184 and for LSU at +152 to win outright.
If you’re using this prediction to bet on the game, you should take ...
- LSU +3.5
- LSU to win +152
- Bet under 59.5 points
Most bettors are of the same opinion, expecting the Tigers to handle the Bears, according to the latest spread consensus picks for the game.
LSU is getting 63 percent of bets to either win the game outright in an upset, or to keep the final margin to a field goal or less in a loss.
The other 37 percent of wagers project Baylor will cover the spread in a win over the Tigers.
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Computer prediction
Other analytical football models are taking a similar view of the matchup.
That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.
That model favors LSU, which came out ahead of Baylor in 59.8 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations of the game on a pure win-loss calculation.
And while Baylor isn’t projected to win, it was competitive in the simulations, edging out the Tigers in the other 40.2 percent of sims.
How does that translate into an expected margin of victory in the game?
By taking an average of all the simulations, LSU is projected to be 3.5 points better than Baylor on the same field, according to the model’s latest forecast.
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How to watch the 2024 Texas Bowl Game
When: Tues., Dec. 31
Where: Houston, Tex.
Time: 2:30 p.m. Central
TV: ESPN network
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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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