LSU vs. Florida football prediction: What the analytics say

Expert prediction for LSU vs. Florida in this Week 12 college football game from an analytical model that simulates games.

LSU vs. Florida football prediction / SCOTT CLAUSE/USA TODAY Network / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

An SEC rivalry game kicks off on Saturday as No. 22 LSU hits the road against Florida. Let’s check in with the latest prediction for the matchup from an analytical football model that simulates games.

LSU dropped its second-straight game, an ugly result at home against Alabama that effectively ended its College Football Playoff hopes for the 2024 season.

Florida has lost three of its last four, including the first two of four straight games against ranked opponents and could be going with its third-string quarterback again this week.

Looking ahead to this week’s matchup, let’s check out the latest college football predictions from the Football Power Index computer prediction model.

The model simulates every NCAA college football game 20,000 times and uses key analytics from both teams and picks winners based on a projected scoring margin per game.

LSU vs. Florida predictions

As expected, the models are siding more with the Tigers over the Gators in this rivalry clash.

LSU is the road favorite in the game, coming out ahead in the majority 57.3 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations of the matchup.

That leaves Florida as the presumptive winner in the remaining 42.7 percent of sims.

In total, the Tigers came out ahead in 11,460 of the index’s calculations for the game, while the Gators edged out LSU in the other 8,540 predictions.

How does that translate into an expected margin of victory in the game?

LSU is projected to be 2.7 points better than Florida on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.

If so, that wouldn’t be enough for the Tigers to cover the spread against the Gators.

That’s because LSU is a 4.5 point favorite against Florida, according to the updated lines posted at FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 54.5 points for the game (Over -115, Under -105).

And it set the moneyline odds for LSU at -176 and for Florida at +146 to win outright.

What the bettors say

A big majority of bettors expect the Tigers to cover that narrow line against the Gators, according to the latest spread consensus picks for the game.

LSU is getting 72 percent of bets to win the game and cover the spread.

The other 28 percent of wagers project Florida will either win the game outright in an upset or will keep the final margin under 5 points in a loss.

LSU vs. Florida future projections

LSU slid to seventh-place among SEC teams with a 7 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff after last week’s loss, according to the FPI’s metrics.

That model gives the Tigers a win total projection of 8 games in 2024.

Florida’s playoff chances ended some time ago, if they ever really existed in the first place, and it has an uphill battle just getting into a bowl game.

The index forecasts the Gators will win 5.4 games and have a 44 percent chance to become bowl eligible.

College Football Power Index

Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance. 

Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting, and a team’s schedule.

Teams are ranked not in order of talent like in other rankings, but by a projected point margin per game against an average team on a neutral field.

College Football Playoff Rankings

1. Oregon
2. Ohio State
3. Texas
4. Penn State
5. Indiana
6. BYU
7. Tennessee
8. Notre Dame
9. Miami
10. Alabama
11. Ole Miss
12. Georgia
13. Boise State
14. SMU
15. Texas A&M
16. Kansas State
17. Colorado
18. Washington State
19. Louisville
20. Clemson
21. South Carolina
22. LSU
23. Missouri
24. Army
25. Tulane

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How to watch LSU vs. Florida

When: Sat., Nov. 16
Time: 3:30 p.m. Eastern
TV: ABC network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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