LSU vs. Florida prediction: Who wins, and why?

What to watch for as LSU and Florida meet in this SEC rivalry clash, with our updated prediction for the game.

LSU vs. Florida Prediction / Scott Kinser-Imagn Images

SEC football gets underway between two rivals coming off losses they would prefer to forget, as No. 22 LSU pays a visit to Florida. Here’s what you should watch for in the matchup, with our updated prediction for the game.

LSU almost certainly fell out of College Football Playoff contention, or more accurately was thrown out of it, after an ugly loss at home against rival Alabama last weekend, and has to win out, including the bowl, in order to finish with 10 wins.

Florida was smacked at Texas last week in a 49-17 decision that saw third-string quarterback Aidan Warner leading the offense, and needing two wins in its last three games in order to become bowl eligible, but all five of the Gators’ losses are to CFP top 25 ranked teams.

What can we expect as the Tigers and Gators meet in this SEC rivalry matchup?

Here’s what you should watch for as LSU and Florida get reacquainted in this Week 12 college football clash, with our updated prediction for the game.

LSU vs. Florida prediction: What to watch for

1. Is LSU really out of it? That loss to Alabama certainly gave LSU’s playoff chances a black eye, but mathematically speaking, there’s still a road to the SEC title game. You might need a calculator to get it right, but it’s there.

LSU of course needs to win out, and also needs Alabama and Tennessee losing at least once more each, and then could sneak in based on a conference winning percentage tiebreaker. It’s a long shot, sure, but LSU’s season isn’t exactly over.

2. Lagway’s return. Gators quarterback DJ Lagway appears on course to make his return this week after missing last week’s game with a leg injury he suffered against Georgia. After being listed as questionable originally, Lagway came off UF’s injury report late in the week.

Lagway has appeared in 8 games this season, completing 61 percent of his passes for 1,071 yards with 6 touchdowns and 5 picks, and in his one full SEC appearance, Florida scored a season-best 48 points as he posted 259 yards passing and 46 more rushing.

Having him on the field gives the Gators a notable advantage behind center who, despite his inexperience, has proven able to hit some deeper passes and move with his legs and is going against an LSU defense that has been vulnerable against both.

3. Turnover trouble. LSU’s offense is highly dependent on quarterback Garrett Nussmeier, who leads an attack that ranks 5th in FBS throwing the ball over 61 percent of the time, including on 42 of the team’s 66 offensive plays in the Alabama loss.

And while he’s second in the SEC in passing yards and touchdowns this season, he also has 11 interceptions, the second most in the conference, including 6 giveaways in the last 6 quarters, with 3 picks against the Aggies, and 2 more with a fumble against the Tide.

What the analytics say

Most football computer prediction models are siding with the Tigers over the Gators this week.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

LSU comes out ahead in the slight majority 57.5 percent of the computer’s simulations of the game.

The other 42.5 percent of sims have Florida winning out in the upset.

How does that translate into an expected margin of victory? Expect a close one.

LSU is projected to be just 2.7 points better than Florida on the same field, according to the model’s latest forecast. Rounding up, let’s call it a field goal game for the Tigers.

More ... LSU vs. Florida prediction: What the analytics say

Who is favored?

LSU is a 3.5 point favorite against Florida, according to the updated lines posted at FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel set the total at 55.5 points for the game (Over -115, Under -105).

And it lists the moneyline odds for LSU at -170 and for Florida at +140 to win outright.

LSU vs. Florida prediction: Who wins?

Lagway’s presence on the field makes things interesting for the Gators. He’s not Jalen Milroe, but his combination of some dependable-enough mid-range accuracy and in-pocket mobility do present a credible challenge to LSU’s maligned secondary and front seven, respectively.

Still, the Gators have slogged through 8 giveaways in the last 4 games and aren’t really playing enough consistent offense to match what Nussmeier can still do, despite his own recent struggles.

Florida is 90th nationally against the pass and 95th against the run, which should afford some reliable throwing lanes for LSU to exploit and to even build on its thus-far limited rushing capacity.

College Football HQ picks ...

• LSU wins 31-23
• Covers the spread
• And hits the under

More ... LSU vs. Florida score prediction by expert football model

How to watch LSU vs. Florida

When: Sat., Nov. 16
Time: 3:30 p.m. Eastern
TV: ABC network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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