LSU vs. Florida score prediction by expert football model

What the analytics predict for LSU vs. Florida in this Week 12 college football game by an expert model that projects scores and picks winners.

LSU vs. Florida score prediction 2024 / SCOTT CLAUSE/USA TODAY Network / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

An SEC football rivalry kicks off on Saturday as LSU hits the road against Florida. Let’s check in with the latest prediction for the game from an expert analytical football model that projects scores and picks winners.

LSU is coming off its second-straight loss of the season, and an ugly one, after Alabama scored 42 points on this defense, effectively ending the Tigers’ playoff ambitions.

Florida is 0-2 in its first two dates against four-straight ranked opponents, not scoring over 20 points in losses to Georgia and Texas.

What do the analytical models suggest for when the Tigers and Gators meet in this SEC clash?

For that, let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how LSU and Florida compare in this Week 12 college football game.

LSU vs. Florida score prediction

The models are siding with the Tigers over the Gators in this game, albeit in a close result.

SP+ predicts that LSU will defeat Florida by a projected score of 33 to 27 and will win the game by an expected margin of 6.1 points in the process.

The model gives the Tigers a 65 percent chance at outright victory in the game over the Gators.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 292-263-8 against the spread with a 52.6 win percentage after going 30-19-1 (61%) last weekend.

LSU vs. Florida odds, how to pick the game

LSU is a 4.5 point favorite against Florida, according to the updated lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook for the game.

FanDuel set the total at 54.5 points for the game (Over -115, Under -105).

And it lists the moneyline odds for LSU at -182 and for Florida at +150 to win outright.

If you’re using this prediction to bet on the game, you should take ...

• LSU -4.5
• LSU to win -182
• Bet over 54.5 points

You would be in the company of most bettors, who expect the Tigers to cover that narrow line against the Gators, according to the latest spread consensus picks for the game.

LSU is getting 72 percent of bets to win the game and cover the spread.

The other 28 percent of wagers project Florida will either win the game outright in an upset or will keep the final margin under 5 points in a loss.

LSU vs. Florida splits

LSU has averaged 3.5 points better than its opponents this season, when adding up all the points in the wins and losses.

Florida is 89th in FBS by averaging 4.1 points worse than the competition in 2024.

But those margins have drawn closer over the last three games.

LSU has played 6.7 points worse than the competition in that span, while Florida has averaged 6 points worse than the other team in that time.

At home this season, the Gators have played 0.5 points better than opponents, while the Tigers have been 1.3 points better than competition when on the road.

Computer predictions

Most other analytical models also favor the Tigers over the Gators in this SEC rivalry clash.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

LSU is the road favorite, coming out ahead in the majority 57.3 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations of the matchup.

That leaves Florida as the presumptive winner in the remaining 42.7 percent of sims.

How does that translate into an expected margin of victory in the game?

LSU is projected to be 2.7 points better than Florida on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.

More ... LSU vs. Florida prediction: What the analytics say

LSU vs. Florida future projections

LSU slid to seventh-place among SEC teams with a 7 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff after last week’s loss, according to the FPI’s metrics.

That model gives the Tigers a win total projection of 8 games in 2024.

Florida’s playoff chances ended some time ago, if they ever really existed in the first place, and it has an uphill battle just getting into a bowl game.

The index forecasts the Gators will win 5.4 games and have a 44 percent chance to become bowl eligible.

How to watch LSU vs. Florida

When: Sat., Nov. 16
Time: 3:30 p.m. Eastern
TV: ABC network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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