LSU vs. South Alabama football prediction: What the analytics say

Expert predictions for LSU vs. South Alabama by the football model that picks winners.

LSU vs. South Alabama football prediction / SCOTT CLAUSE/USA TODAY Network / USA TODAY NETWORK

LSU finishes off its non-conference schedule this weekend and looks to improve to 4-1 on the year as it welcomes Sun Belt challenger South Alabama in college football’s Week 5 action.

Coming out of a halftime tie against UCLA last week, the Tigers scored 17 unanswered points to pull away, but at a terrible cost after losing star linebacker Harold Perkins for the season with an ACL tear.

That hole in LSU’s already-vulnerable defense could be tested by a South Alabama offense that has outscored its two previous opponents 135 to 24, including a win at App State last weekend.

Looking ahead to this week’s matchup, let’s check out the latest college football predictions from the Football Power Index computer prediction model.

The model simulates every NCAA college football game 20,000 times and uses key analytics from both teams to predict outcomes based on a projected scoring margin per game.

LSU vs. South Alabama prediction

As expected, the computers favor the home team, but by a narrower margin than projected.

LSU comes out as the projected winner of the game in 78.5 percent of the model’s updated simulations.

That leaves the Jaguars as the expected victor in the remaining 21.5 percent of sims.

As for the scale of the expected victory, the index projects a close game.

LSU is projected to be just 11.9 points better than South Alabama on the same field, according to the models.

If so, that wouldn’t be enough for the Tigers to cover the spread.

That’s because LSU is a 22 point favorite against South Alabama, according to the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook.

The book lists the total at 65.5 points for the game.

FanDuel set the moneyline odds for LSU at -1600 and for South Alabama at +900 to win outright.

Most bettors are still confident in LSU to take care of the Jaguars this weekend.

A majority of bets, 66 percent, project the Tigers will win the game and cover the spread.

And the remaining 34 percent of wagers suggest South Alabama will either upset LSU or, more likely, keep the game within the line.

LSU is projected to defeat South Alabama by an implied score of 44 to 22 when taking the point spread and total into consideration, resulting in a push and the game hitting the over.

College Football Power Index

Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance. 

Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting, and a team’s schedule.

Teams are ranked not in order of talent like in other rankings, but by a projected point margin per game against an average team on a neutral field.

AP top 25 poll

First-place votes in parentheses

1. Texas (44)
2. Georgia (13)
3. Ohio State (5)
4. Alabama
5. Tennessee
6. Ole Miss
7. Miami
8. Oregon
9. Penn State
10. Utah
11. Missouri
12. Michigan
13. USC
14. LSU
15. Louisville
16. Notre Dame
17. Clemson
18. Iowa State
19. Illinois
20. Oklahoma State
21. Oklahoma
22. BYU
23. Kansas State
24. Texas A&M
25. Boise State

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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More college football from SI: Top 25 Rankings | Schedule | Teams

Follow College Football HQ: Bookmark | Rankings | Picks

-

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

-

More college football from SI: Top 25 Rankings | Schedule | Teams

Follow College Football HQ: Bookmark | Rankings | Picks