LSU vs. South Alabama score prediction by expert college football model

What the analytics predict for LSU vs. South Alabama in this Week 5 college football game.

LSU vs. South Alabama score prediction / Scott Kinser-Imagn Images

LSU just lost its principal defensive player on a unit that was vulnerable to begin with and sets out against South Alabama in a notable non-conference game in college football’s Week 5 action.

This is the first game LSU will play without star linebacker Harold Perkins, Jr., who left last week’s win against UCLA with what turned out to be an ACL tear and is out for the season, putting more pressure on Garrett Nussmeier and the Tigers’ offense to make up the difference throwing the ball.

Jaguars quarterback Gio Lopez is 8th nationally in offensive production, totaling 337 yards per game on average, with 843 passing yards and 9 TDs in addition to 171 rushing yards and 2 other scores on an offense that has outscored its last 2 opponents 135 to 24.

What can we expect in the matchup this weekend?

Let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how LSU and South Alabama compare in this Week 5 college football game.

LSU vs. South Alabama score prediction

As expected, the simulations favor the home side Tigers against the Jaguars.

SP+ predicts that LSU will defeat South Alabama by a projected score of 42 to 23 and win the game by an expected 18.7 points.

The model gives the Tigers a strong 88 percent chance of outright victory.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 105-91-1 against the spread with a 53.6 win percentage.

Who is favored?

LSU is a 21.5 point favorite against South Alabama, according to the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 65.5 points for the game.

And it set the moneyline odds for LSU at -1700 and for South Alabama at +860 to win outright.

If you’re using this projection to bet on the game, you should take ...

• South Alabama +21.5
• LSU to win -1700
• Bet under 65.5 points

Computer prediction

Other analytical models also favor the Tigers to take care of business this weekend.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

LSU is projected to win the game in the majority 78.6 percent of the computer’s updated simulations.

That leaves South Alabama as the expected winner in the remaining 21.4 percent of sims.

LSU is projected to be 11.9 points better than South Alabama on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.

LSU is eighth among SEC teams with a 7.2 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff and will win 7 games this season, according to the FPI’s metrics.

That model projects South Alabama will win 7.8 games and is fifth among Sun Belt teams with a 0.8 percent shot at the 12-team playoff.

How to watch LSU vs. South Alabama

When: Sat., Sept. 28
Time: 6:45 p.m. Central
TV: SEC Network

More ... LSU vs. South Alabama prediction: What the analytics say

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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