LSU vs. Texas A&M football prediction: What the analytics say

An expert analytical model offers a prediction for LSU vs. Texas A&M in this Week 9 college football game.

LSU vs. Texas A&M football predction / Ken Ruinard/USA TODAY Network via Imagn Images

A critical SEC matchup finds No. 14 Texas A&M and The 12th Man playing host to No. 8 LSU on Saturday night. Let’s check with the latest prediction for the matchup from an analytical model that simulates games.

LSU and Texas A&M remain the last two teams undefeated in SEC play, coming in at 3-0 and 4-0 in conference games, respectively, with the winner set to take first place in the standings.

And in the process, put themselves in a much better position to earn consideration from the selection committee when College Football Playoff time comes around.

Looking ahead to this week’s matchup, let’s check out the latest college football predictions from the Football Power Index computer prediction model.

The model simulates every NCAA college football game 20,000 times and uses key analytics from both teams and picks winners based on a projected scoring margin per game.

LSU vs. Texas A&M predictions

So far, the Aggies are getting a little more love than the Tigers in the latest projections.

Texas A&M is projected to win the game outright in the majority 52.7 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations of the matchup.

That leaves LSU as the expected winner in the remaining 47.3 percent of sims.

In total, the Aggies came out ahead in 10,540 of the index’s simulations, while the Tigers edged out A&M in the other 9,460 predictions.

And the index suggests a very close win for the Aggies over the Tigers.

Texas A&M is projected to be just 1 point better than LSU on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.

If so, that wouldn’t be enough for the Aggies to cover the spread against the Tigers.

That’s because Texas A&M is a 2.5 point favorite against LSU, according to the updated lines at FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 53.5 points for the game (Over -110, Under -110).

And it set the moneyline odds for Texas A&M at -135 and for LSU at +115 to win outright.

What the bettors say

So far, a majority of bettors are taking the Tigers against the Aggies, according to the latest spread consensus picks.

LSU is getting 64 percent of bets to either win the game outright in an upset, or to keep the final score under a field goal in a loss.

The other 36 percent of wagers project that Texas A&M will win and cover the spread, coming out by at least a field goal.

LSU vs. Texas A&M future predictions

Coming into this week, the index has the Tigers and Aggies neck-and-neck in its projections.

LSU is fifth among SEC teams with a 39.3 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff, according to the FPI’s metrics.

That model gives the Tigers a win total prediction of 9.1 games this season.

Texas A&M has a 31.8 percent chance to make the 12-team playoff, sixth in the SEC, according to the index’s calculations.

The Aggies will win 9.0 games this season, according to the computers.

College Football Power Index

Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction models are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance.

Rankings and score predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting, and a team’s schedule.

Teams are ranked not in order of talent like in other rankings, but by a projected point margin per game against an average team on a neutral field.

AP top 25 rankings

First-place votes in parentheses

1. Oregon (59)
2. Georgia (2)
3. Penn State
4. Ohio State
5. Texas
6. Miami
7. Tennessee
8. LSU
9. Clemson
10. Iowa State
11. BYU
12. Notre Dame
13. Indiana
14. Texas A&M
15. Alabama
16. Kansas State
17. Boise State
18. Ole Miss
19. Pittsburgh
20. Illinois
21. Missouri
22. SMU
23. Army
24. Navy
25. Vanderbilt

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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