LSU vs. Texas A&M Prediction: Who Wins, and Why?

What to watch for as LSU meets Texas A&M in this Week 9 college football matchup, with our updated prediction for this critical SEC game.

LSU Tigers vs. Texas A&M Aggies Prediction / Stephen Lew-Imagn Images

The last two undefeated teams in SEC play square off under the eyes of The 12th Man as No. 14 Texas A&M plays host to No. 8 LSU in college football’s Week 9 action on Saturday night. Here’s what you should watch for, along with our updated prediction for the game.

Texas A&M sits alone atop the SEC standings as the only 4-0 team in conference play, including a dominant 31-point win over then-No. 9 Missouri at home.

LSU improved to 3-0 in SEC play by averaging over 34 points per game behind the work of quarterback Garrett Nussmeier, who commands the No. 8 passing offense in college football.

What can we expect as the Bayou Bengals and the Aggies square off in this SEC matchup?

Here’s what you should watch out for as LSU pays a visit to Texas A&M in this Week 9 college football game, along with our updated prediction.

LSU vs. Texas A&M prediction: What to watch

1. Going deep. Nussmeier has thrown for over 300 yards in 5 games and leads the SEC with 18 touchdown passes, but his efficiency has fallen in conference play, to about 55 percent completion. 

Brian Kelly defended that relative decline by saying whatever his quarterback isn’t getting on short and medium throws, the team makes up for with its more aggressive deep balls. So far, so good, as Nussmeier is 7th nationally in passing output.

2. On the ground. A&M is 13th nationally in rushing production with almost 219 yards per game on average as tailback Le’Veon Moss is second in the SEC with more than 96 yards himself, but LSU presents a challenge, ranking 33rd in FBS allowing 115 yards on the ground.

3. At the line. LSU has played solid protection up front in front of Nussmeier, ranking 2nd nationally by allowing just 2 sacks all year and 0.29 sacks per game and is 3rd by surrendering 2.57 tackles for loss from opponents and just 18 negative plays total, 5th best in FBS.

Texas A&M presents a formidable challenge in the front seven, led by transfer edge rusher Nic Scourton, who is top 10 in the SEC with 4.5 sacks and 11 tackles for loss.

What the analytics say

Most analytics models expect a close game, with a slight edge given to the Aggies over the Tigers.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Texas A&M is expected to win the game outright in a majority 52.8 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations of the matchup.

That leaves LSU as the expected winner in the remaining 47.2 percent of sims.

Texas A&M is projected to be just 1 point better than LSU on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.

More ... LSU vs. Texas A&M predictions: What the analytics say

Who is favored?

Texas A&M is a 1.5 point favorite against LSU, according to the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel set the total at 54.5 points for the game (Over -115, Under -105).

And it lists the moneyline odds for Texas A&M at -125 and for LSU at +104 to win outright.

LSU vs. Texas A&M prediction: Who wins?

This one’s basically a toss-up, which, combined with the raucous home field atmosphere under the lights, and everything that’s on the line in the SEC, should make this the game of the week.

LSU is still, despite some marginal improvement recently, vulnerable defending against the pass, but the Aggies are also still a little inconsistent when throwing the ball.

A&M can run the ball with some power, but the Tigers are better at limiting those gains.

LSU can protect the quarterback, but the Aggies have the bodies to seriously disrupt that pristine protection and throw Nussmeier off his game.

As is the case in any 50-50 matchup like this one, it should come down to the one big play that breaks the game open late, and right now LSU is the team that can strike deeper and faster.

And for those of a betting persuasion, it usually pays to take the points.

College Football HQ picks ...

• LSU wins 30-27
• In an upset
• And hits the over

How to watch LSU vs. Texas A&M

When: Sat., Oct. 26
Time: 6:30 p.m. Central
TV: ABC network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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