LSU vs. Texas A&M score prediction by expert college football model

What the analytics predict for LSU vs. Texas A&M in this Week 9 college football game by an expert model that picks winners.

LSU Tigers vs. Texas A&M Aggies score prediction / Matt Pendleton-Imagn Images

A critical SEC football matchup kicks off under the lights between teams undefeated in conference play as No. 14 Texas A&M welcomes No. 8 LSU in college football’s Week 9 action on Saturday. Let’s check in with the latest prediction for the game by an expert model that projects scores and picks winners.

Texas A&M became the first team to start 4-0 in SEC play this season and sits atop the conference standings and with one of the nation’s most intense home field advantages, courtesy of The 12th Man.

LSU moved to 3-0 in conference games and sits right behind the Aggies, but already has one loss on the year and can ill afford a second when it comes to College Football Playoff selection time.

What do the analytical models suggest for when the Tigers and Aggies meet in this SEC clash?

For that, let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how LSU and Texas A&M compare in this Week 9 college football game.

LSU vs. Texas A&M score prediction

So far, the models are siding with the home team, but by a very slim margin.

SP+ predicts that Texas A&M will defeat LSU by a projected score of 29 to 28 and win the game by an expected margin of 0.4 points in the process.

The model gives the Aggies a narrow 51 percent chance of outright victory in the game.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 211-194-4 against the spread with a 52.1 win percentage after going 31-27-1 (53.4%) last weekend.

LSU vs. Texas A&M picks, odds

Texas A&M is a 1.5 point favorite against LSU, according to the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 54.5 points for the game (Over -115, Under -105).

And it set the moneyline odds for Texas A&M at -120 and for LSU at +100 to win outright.

If you’re using this prediction to bet on the game, you should take ...

• LSU +1.5
• Texas A&M to win -120
• Bet over 54.5 points

If you do, you’ll be in the company of a plurality of bettors who are siding with the Tigers, according to the latest spread consensus picks for the game.

LSU is getting 61 percent of bets to either win the game outright in an upset, or to keep the game at exactly 1 point in a loss.

The other 39 percent of wagers project that Texas A&M will win the game and cover the narrow spread.

LSU vs. Texas A&M splits

Texas A&M has won its games at home by an average of 9 points this season.

But that average has increased over the last three games, as the Aggies have been 15 points better than their opponents in that time.

LSU has been 6.7 points better than its opposition when it plays games on the road in 2024.

But the Tigers have been a dominant 19.7 points better than their opponents over the last three games overall.

Computer prediction

Most other analytical models also give the Aggies a slight edge over the Tigers in this game.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Texas A&M is projected to win the game outright in the majority 52.8 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations of the matchup.

That leaves LSU as the expected winner in the remaining 47.2 percent of sims.

Texas A&M is projected to be just 1 point better than LSU on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.

LSU vs. Texas A&M future predictions

LSU is fifth among SEC teams with a 40.5 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff, according to the FPI’s metrics.

That model gives the Tigers a win total prediction of 9.1 games this season.

Texas A&M is right behind, ranking sixth in the conference with a 32.2 percent chance to make the 12-team playoff, according to the index’s calculations.

FPI projects the Aggies will win 9 games in ‘24.

How to watch LSU vs. Texas A&M

When: Sat., Oct. 26
Time: 6:30 p.m. Central
TV: ABC network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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