LSU vs. UCLA score prediction by expert college football model

What the analytics predict for LSU vs. UCLA in this Week 4 college football game.

LSU Tigers vs. UCLA Bruins Prediction / Scott Kinser-Imagn Images

Coming off an ugly Big Ten debut last week, UCLA hits the road in SEC Country against No. 16 LSU in college football’s Week 4 action on Saturday.

LSU checks in at 2-1 on the year after an opening loss to USC and is coming off a close call after trailing South Carolina by 17 points before mounting a comeback in a 36-33 victory last weekend.

Garrett Nussmeier has been a revelation for the offense, leading an attack that ranks 24th nationally and averages more than 302 passing yards per game, but the Tigers’ ground game has room for improvement, placing 111th in FBS, and the offense is 55th in scoring output.

After falling to Indiana in a 42-13 decision at home a week ago, the Bruins now rank 126th nationally with just 14.5 points per game on average, 122nd in rushing production, 85th in passing, and is 97th out of 134 FBS teams in scoring defense, allowing almost 4 touchdowns per game.

What can we make of the matchup this weekend? 

Let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview for how LSU and UCLA compare in this Week 4 college football game.

LSU vs. UCLA score prediction

As expected, the simulations currently favor the home team to take care of business here.

SP+ predicts that LSU will defeat UCLA by a projected score of 39 to 21 and to win the game by an expected 18.3 points.

The model gives the Tigers a strong 87 percent chance of outright victory.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 75-68 against the spread with a 52.4 win percentage.

Point spread

LSU is a 24.5 point favorite against UCLA, according to the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook, which set the total at 56.5 points for the game.

FanDuel lists the moneyline odds for LSU at -3000 and for UCLA at +1200 to win outright.

If you’re using this projection to bet on the game, you should take ...

• UCLA +24.5
• LSU to win -3000
• Bet over 56.5 points

Computer prediction

Other analytical models also favor the Tigers to dominate their Big Ten rival this week.

That includes College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times and pick winners.

LSU comes out the expected winner in a majority 88.1 percent of the computer’s updated simulations.

That leaves UCLA as the expected winner in the remaining 11.9 percent of sims.

The index predicts that LSU will be 18.7 points better than UCLA on the same field, still not enough for the Tigers to cover the spread against the Bruins.

LSU is 9th among SEC teams with a 5.8 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff and will win 6.9 games this season, according to the FPI’s metrics.

That model projects UCLA will win 3.1 games with a mere 5.2 percent shot to become bowl eligible.

LSU vs. UCLA schedule

When: Sat., Sept. 21
Time: 2:30 p.m. CT | 12:30 p.m. PT
TV: ABC network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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