LSU vs. UCLA picks, predictions, Week 4 college football odds, lines

Expert predictions for LSU vs. UCLA by the computer model that picks winners.

LSU vs. UCLA picks, predictions / Matthew Hinton-Imagn Images

LSU already owns a loss against one of the Big Ten's new Los Angeles-based schools, but is a big favorite against the other this week, as the No. 16 Tigers welcome UCLA on Saturday.

UCLA is coming off a forgettable Big Ten debut last week, dropping a 42-13 decision at home against Indiana and sits 97th in scoring defense, 122nd in rushing output, and 127th in scoring offense.

LSU is 24th nationally by averaging over 302 passing yards per game behind quarterback Garrett Nussmeier and though it's 111th in rushing, tailback Caden Durham had a good showing last week, rushing for 98 yards and 2 touchdowns in a close win at South Carolina.

Looking ahead to this week's matchup, let's check out the latest college football predictions from the Football Power Index computer projection model.

The model simulates every NCAA college football game 20,000 times and uses key analytics from both teams to predict outcomes based on a projected scoring margin per game.

LSU vs. UCLA picks, predictions

Predictably, the computer is siding with the home team this week.

LSU is projected to win the game in the majority 88 percent of the model's simulations, or 17,600 of the computer's predictions.

Conversely, the Bruins come out the winner in the remaining 12 percent of sims.

LSU is projected to be 18.7 points better than UCLA on the same field, according to the models.

But that wouldn't be enough to cover the spread.

That's because LSU is a 24 point favorite against UCLA, according to the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook, which set the total at 56.5 points for the game.

FanDuel lists the moneyline odds for LSU at -2500 and for UCLA at +1200.

The model projects UCLA will win 3.1 games this season and sits last among Big Ten teams with a 0 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff.

LSU will win 6.9 games this year, and faces an uphill battle in the SEC with a 5.9 percent shot at the playoff.

College Football Power Index

Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance. 

Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting, and a team’s schedule.

Teams are ranked not in order of talent like in other rankings, but by a projected point margin per game against an average team on a neutral field.

AP top 25 rankings

First-place votes in parentheses

1. Texas (35)
2. Georgia (23)
3. Ohio State (5)
4. Alabama
5. Ole Miss
6. Tennessee
7. Missouri
8. Miami
9. Oregon
10. Penn State
11. USC
12. Utah
13. Kansas State
14. Oklahoma State
15. Oklahoma
16. LSU
17. Notre Dame
18. Michigan
19. Louisville
20. Iowa State
21. Clemson
22. Nebraska
23. Northern Illinois
24. Illinois
25. Texas A&M

-

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

-

More college football from SI: Top 25 Rankings | Schedule | Teams

Follow College Football HQ: Bookmark | Rankings | Picks