Miami vs. Cal score prediction by expert college football model

What the analytics predict for Miami vs. Cal in this Week 6 college football game.

Miami vs. Cal score prediction / Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images

A new-look ACC football matchup finds No. 8 Miami on the road against Cal in college football’s Week 6 action this Saturday. Let’s check in with the updated predictions for the game.

Miami is a perfect 5-0 overall and 1-0 in ACC play after rallying behind quarterback Cam Ward to come back against Virginia Tech last week, posting the nation’s 3rd ranked scoring offense behind a passing attack that is No. 1 in FBS at almost 393 yards per game.

Cal was perfect through 3 games, including a road victory against Auburn, but dropped a 14-9 decision against struggling Florida State, falling to 3-1 on the year and an 0-1 mark in conference.

What do the experts think of this week’s matchup?

For that, let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how Miami and Cal compare in this Week 6 college football game.

Miami vs. Cal prediction

So far, the simulations come out in favor of the Hurricanes in this road game.

SP+ predicts that Miami will defeat Cal by a projected score of 33 to 23 and to win the game by an expected 10 points.

The model gives the Hurricanes a strong 73 percent chance of outright victory.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 133-114-2 against the spread with a 53.8 win percentage.

Miami vs Cal odds

Miami is a 10.5 point favorite against Cal, according to the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the moneyline odds for Miami at -400 and for Cal at +310 to win outright.

And it set the total at 54.5 points for the game.

If you’re using this projection to bet on the game, you should take ...

• Cal +10.5
• Miami to win -400
• Bet over 54.5 points

Computer prediction

Other analytical models also expect Miami to come away with the win.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Miami is projected to win the game in 71.6 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations.

That leaves Cal as the expected winner in the remaining 28.4 percent of sims.

Miami is projected to be 8.5 points better than Cal on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.

Miami is first among ACC teams with a 62 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff and will win 11 games this season, according to the FPI’s metrics.

That model forecasts Cal will win 7.4 games and has a 90 percent shot to play in a bowl game.

How to watch Miami vs. Cal

When: Sat., Oct. 5
Time: 10:30 p.m. ET | 7:30 p.m. PT
TV: ESPN network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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