Miami vs. Duke score prediction by expert college football model

What the analytics predict for Miami vs. Duke in this Week 10 college football game from an expert model that picks winners and projects scores.

Miami vs. Duke score prediction / Matt Pendleton-Imagn Images

ACC football returns this weekend as No. 5 Miami looks to stay undefeated against conference challenger Duke. Let’s take a look at the latest prediction for the game from an expert football model that projects scores and picks winners.

Miami improved to 4-0 with a dominant win over Florida State and ranks No. 1 nationally in scoring production and 2nd overall with 367 passing yards per game.

Duke was 1 point away from knocking off ranked SMU last week after forcing 6 turnovers but was unable to convert a 2-point try and fell to 2-2 in ACC play.

What do the analytics suggest for when the Hurricanes and Blue Devils meet in this ACC clash?

For that, let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how Miami and Duke compare in this Week 10 college football game.

Miami vs. Duke score prediction

As expected, the models favor the Hurricanes at home in this conference matchup.

SP+ predicts that Miami will defeat Duke by a projected score of 36 to 18 and will win the game by an expected margin of 18.5 points in the process.

The model gives the Canes a strong 88 percent chance of outright victory over the Devils.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 239-221-5 against the spread with a 51.9 win percentage after going 28-27-1 (50.9%) last weekend.

Miami vs. Duke odds

Miami is a 20.5 point favorite against Duke, according to the updated lines posted at FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 54.5 points for the game (Over -112, Under -108).

And it set the moneyline odds for Miami at -1400 and for Duke at +800 to win outright.

If you’re using this prediction to bet on the game, you should take ...

• Duke +20.5
• Miami to win -1400
• Bet under 54.5 points

If you do, you’ll be in the company of a plurality of bettors who are giving the Blue Devils more of a chance against the Hurricanes, according to the latest spread consensus picks for the game.

Duke is getting 64 percent of bets to either win the game outright in an upset, or more likely, to keep the final score under 3 touchdowns in a loss.

The other 36 percent of wagers project Miami will win the game by at least 3 touchdowns and cover the generous point spread.

Miami vs. Duke splits

Miami has averaged 22.1 points better than its opponents overall this season, while Duke has played 5.1 points better than its competition on the same field in 2024.

Over the last three games, the Hurricanes’ average margin of victory has fallen to 10 points.

And for Duke, that number fell to 1.3 points worse than the opposition in that span.

Miami is 29.3 points better than its opponents when playing at home this season, and Duke has averaged 8 points better than the competition when playing on the road.

Miami’s offense vs. Duke’s defense

Miami is No. 1 nationally with 45.4 points per game on average this season, compared to a Duke defense that is 29th in FBS by allowing 20.9 points per game.

On average, Miami is good for 0.610 points per play this year, ranking No. 6 nationally, and is No. 1 with 7.6 yards per play, and No. 1 in third down offense at 58.89 percent.

Duke is No. 13 in third down defense, allowing 30.91 percent conversion from opponents, is 15th by allowing 4.7 yards per play, and is 29th in FBS allowing 0.274 points per play.

Duke’s offense vs. Miami’s defense

Duke is 69th nationally with 26 points per game on average, compared to a Miami defense that is 47th in allowing 23.3 points per game from opponents.

On average, Duke is good for 0.380 points per play, ranking No. 62 nationally, and is 103rd in FBS with 4.9 yards per play, while ranking 127th in third down offense at 28.71 percent.

Miami is 8th in third down defense, allowing 29.89 percent conversion from opponents, is 32nd by surrendering 4.9 yards per play, and is 63rd nationally allowing 0.363 points per play.

Computer prediction

Most other analytical models also favor the Hurricanes over the Blue Devils in this matchup.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Miami is expected to win the game outright in 90.6 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations of the matchup.

That leaves Duke as the presumptive winner in the remaining 9.4 percent of sims.

Miami is projected to be 20.4 points better than Duke on the same field according to the computer’s latest simulation of the game in the model’s latest forecast.

Miami vs. Duke future predictions

Miami is first among ACC teams with an 89 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff, according to the FPI’s metrics.

That model projects the Hurricanes will win 12 games this season.

Duke has no practical chance to make the playoff, but is a sure thing to play in the postseason, according to the models.

The index forecasts the Blue Devils will win 7.7 games and have a 100 percent chance to become bowl eligible.

How to watch Miami vs. Duke

When: Sat., Nov. 2
Time: 12 p.m. Eastern
TV: ABC network

-

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

-

More college football from SI: Top 25 Rankings | Schedule | Teams

Follow College Football HQ: Bookmark | Rankings | Picks