Miami vs. Florida score prediction by college football expert model

What the analytics predict for Miami vs. Florida in this Week 1 college football game.

Expert score prediction for Miami vs. Florida in this Week 1 college football game. / Matt Pendleton/Gainesville Sun / USA TODAY NETWORK

Week 1 of the 2024 college football begins on Saturday with a notable non-conference SEC vs. ACC matchup featuring two in-state marquee brands, both looking to help their head coaches get over an important hump as Miami and Florida square off in The Swamp.

Mario Cristobal and Billy Napier are both under .500 in their tenures at Miami and Florida, respectively, and each need to make a statement to their fan bases in this Week 1 clash, especially as both look forward to playing very tough schedules going forward, Florida's arguably the hardest nationally.

What do the analytics say about the game? For that, let's turn to he SP+ prediction model to get an early look at how Miami and Florida match up in this critical Week 1 game.

Miami vs. Florida prediction

In a notable turn, the simulations currently favor the home team, but by the slimmest of margins.

In fact, SP+ predicts that Miami and Florida will effectively play to a 30-30 tie, but that result finally tilts in the Gators' favor when accounting for their 0.3 point win margin.

The model also gives Florida the close 51 percent chance to win the game outright.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

Miami vs. Florida game odds

Miami is a 2.5 point favorite against Florida, according to the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook, which set the total at 54.5 points for the game.

FanDuel set the moneyline odds for Miami at -140 and for Florida at +116.

If you're using this projection to bet on the game, you should take...

• Florida +2.5
• Gators to win +116
• Over 54.5 points

Computer prediction

Other analytic tools also notably favor the Gators to hold the fort in The Swamp against the Canes.

That includes College Football Power Index, a computer prediction tool that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times and pick winners.

The index suggests that Florida will win the game in 57.3 percent of its simulations, while the Hurricanes come out the winner in the remaining 42.7 percent of sims.

The model is also expecting a very close result, currently speculating that Florida will be 0.5 points better than Miami on any field.

Florida vs. Miami game time, schedule

When: Sat., Aug. 31
Time: 3:30 p.m. Eastern
TV: ABC network

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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