Miami vs. Florida State score prediction by expert college football model

What the analytics predict for Miami vs. Florida State in this Week 9 college football game from an expert model that picks winners.

Miami vs. Florida State score prediction / Matt Pendleton-Imagn Images

One of college football’s more memorable rivalry games kicks off on Saturday as No. 6 Miami plays host to reeling Florida State this weekend. Let’s take a look at the latest prediction for the game from an expert model that projects scores and picks winners.

Florida State has taken the last three games in this series, outscoring the Hurricanes 103 to 51 in the process, but the models and bookies are taking a very different view this season as the Seminoles have collapsed to a shocking 1-6 record behind college football’s second-worst scoring offense.

Miami is in another universe this season, marching out to a 7-0 record and a top-10 ranking, in the thick of the ACC title race thanks to the nation’s No. 1 passing attack and No. 2 scoring unit.

What do the analytics suggest for when the Seminoles and Hurricanes meet in this ACC clash?

For that, let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how Miami and Florida State compare in this Week 9 college football game.

Miami vs. Florida State score prediction

As expected, the models are giving a big edge to the Hurricanes over the Seminoles in this one.

SP+ predicts that Miami will defeat Florida State by a projected score of 39 to 16 and to win the game by an expected margin of 22.5 points in the win.

The model gives the Hurricanes a strong 92 percent chance of outright victory in the game.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 211-194-4 against the spread with a 52.1 win percentage after going 31-27-1 (53.4%) last weekend.

Miami vs. Florida State odds, picks

Miami is a 20.5 point favorite against Florida State, according to the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 54.5 points for the game (Over -110, Under -110).

And it set the moneyline odds for Miami at -1700 and for Florida State at +890 to win outright.

If you’re using this prediction to bet on the game, you should take...

• Miami -20.5
• Canes to win -1700
• Bet over 54.5 points

If you do, you’ll be in the company of a plurality of bettors, according to the latest spread consensus picks for the game.

Miami is getting 66 percent of bets to win the game and cover the generous spread against its rivals.

The other 34 percent of wagers project the Seminoles will either win the game in an upset, or more likely, keep the final score under 3 touchdowns.

Miami vs. Florida State splits

Miami is 33 points better than its opponents on average in home games this season.

But that margin has closed over the last three games, as the Hurricanes are just 4 points better on average in that time.

Florida State is 12 points worse than its opponents on the road in 2024.

And that average margin of defeat increased to 16.3 points over its last 3 matchups.

Overall, the Hurricanes are 22.2 points better than their opponents overall this season, while the Seminoles have been 10 points worse than theirs in 2024.

Computer prediction

Most other analytical models also favor the Hurricanes in a big win against the Seminoles.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Miami is projected to win the game in the overwhelming 91.4 percent of the computer's most recent simulations of the matchup.

That leaves Florida State as the expected favorite in the remaining 8.6 percent of sims.

Miami is projected to be 21.2 points better than Florida State on the same field in both teams' current composition, according to the model's latest forecast.

Miami vs. Florida State future predictions

Miami is first among ACC teams with an 86.5 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff, according to the FPI’s metrics.

That model gives the Hurricanes a win total prediction of 11.8 games this season.

Florida State will win 2.9 games in 2024, according to the index’s calculations.

That’s enough for an 0.1 percent chance to become eligible for a bowl game this year.

How to watch Florida State vs. Miami

When: Sat., Oct. 26
Time: 7 p.m. Eastern
TV: ESPN network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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