Miami vs. Georgia Tech score prediction by expert football model

What the analytics predict for Miami vs. Georgia Tech in this Week 11 college football game from an expert model that projects scores and picks winners.

Miami vs. Georgia Tech score prediction / Darren Yamashita-Imagn Images

ACC football kicks off this weekend as No. 4 Miami goes on the road against Georgia Tech looking to stay undefeated. Let’s check in with the latest prediction for the game from an expert football model that projects scores and picks winners.

Miami remains perfect and atop the ACC standings behind the nation’s No. 1 scoring offense and the third-ranked passing attack, but is getting pressure from resurgent SMU in the conference title picture.

Georgia Tech has dropped two straight games and three of the last five, falling to 3-3 in ACC play and faces a tough final three games, in addition to this matchup having to look forward to closing out against Georgia, making that two top-four ranked teams in the final three weeks.

What do the analytics models suggest for when the Hurricanes and Yellow Jackets meet in this ACC clash?

For that, let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how Miami and Georgia Tech compare in this Week 11 college football game.

Miami vs. Georgia Tech score prediction

As expected, the models are siding with the Hurricanes over the Ramblin’ Wreck this week.

SP+ predicts that Miami will defeat Georgia Tech by a projected score of 40 to 22 and to win the game by an expected margin of 17.4 points.

The model gives the Hurricanes a strong 86 percent chance of victory.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 262-244-7 against the spread with a 51.8 win percentage after going 23-23-2 (50%) last weekend.

Miami vs. Georgia Tech odds

Miami is a 10.5 point favorite against Georgia Tech, according to the updated lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 63.5 points for the game (Over -110, Under -110).

And it set the moneyline odds for Miami at -400 and for Georgia Tech at +310 to win outright.

If you’re using this prediction to bet on the game, you should take ...

• Miami -10.5
• Canes to win -400
• Bet under 63.5 points

If you do, you’ll be in the company of most bettors, who are projecting the Hurricanes will dominate the Yellow Jackets, according to the latest spread consensus picks for the game.

Miami is getting 63 percent of bets to win the game and cover the double-digit spread.

The other 37 percent of wagers project Georgia Tech will either win outright in an upset, or more likely, will keep the game to 10 points or fewer in a loss.

Miami vs. Georgia Tech splits

Miami ranks No. 7 nationally with a plus-22.1 point differential per game this season, while Georgia Tech has averaged 0.6 points worse than opponents overall.

Those margins changed over the last three games, as Miami has played closer games, averaging 17 points better than the competition, while Tech has been 8.7 points worse.

But the teams are evenly matched based on the venue: Miami is 16.8 points better than teams when playing on the road and Georgia Tech is 16.5 points better when at home.

Miami ranks 3rd nationally with 0.624 points per play on average this season, while Georgia Tech is 77th by allowing 0.393 points per play.

Offensively, the Yellow Jackets are 87th in FBS with 0.344 points per play while the Hurricanes allow teams an average of 0.375 points per play, ranking 69th nationally.

Computer predictions

Most other analytical models also strongly favor the Hurricanes over the Yellow Jackets.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Miami is projected to win the game outright in the majority 76.8 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations of the matchup.

That leaves Georgia Tech as the presumptive winner in the remaining 23.2 percent of sims.

How does that translate to a projected margin of victory in the game?

Miami is expected to be 10.8 points better than Georgia Tech on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.

Miami vs. Georgia Tech future projections

Miami ranks first among ACC teams with a 90.4 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff, according to the FPI’s metrics.

That model gives the Hurricanes a win total projection of 12.2 games this season.

Georgia Tech is not in the playoff picture this season, but is in contention to make the postseason, according to the index’s calculations.

FPI projects the Yellow Jackets will play in a bowl game with 80.9 percent likelihood.

And it expects Tech will win 6.1 games in ‘24.

How to watch Miami vs. Georgia Tech

When: Sat., Nov. 9
Time: 12 p.m. Eastern
TV: ESPN network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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