Miami vs. Louisville football prediction: What the analytics say

Expert prediction for Miami vs. Louisville by the football model that picks winners.

Miami vs. Louisville football prediction / Darren Yamashita-Imagn Images

ACC football returns to the gridiron this weekend as No. 6 Miami is back from its open week on the road against Louisville in college football’s Week 8 action. Let’s take a look at the latest prediction for the game from an expert football model that picks winners.

Miami is one of college football’s 11 undefeated teams this week, scoring over 38 points in each game and ranking 1st nationally in both scoring offense and average passing yardage.

Louisville was ranked before losing 2 straight games, at Notre Dame and at home against SMU, falling to 2-1 in ACC play, but rebounded last week with a 4 point victory against Virginia.

Looking ahead to this week’s matchup, let’s check out the latest college football predictions from the Football Power Index computer prediction model.

The model simulates every NCAA college football game 20,000 times and uses key analytics from both teams and picks winners based on a projected scoring margin per game.

Miami vs. Louisville predictions

So far, the simulations give a slight edge to the visiting team to stay perfect.

Miami is projected to win the game outright in the majority 55.4 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations for the matchup.

That leaves Louisville as the expected winner in the remaining 44.6 percent of sims.

In total, the Hurricanes came out ahead in 11,080 of the index’s simulations for the game, while the Cardinals won out in the other 8,920 predictions.

The index also projects a close result on the scoreboard.

Miami is projected to be just 2.1 points better than Louisville on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.

If so, that wouldn’t be enough for the Hurricanes to cover the spread.

That’s because Miami is a 4.5 point favorite against Louisville, according to the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 61.5 points for the game.

And it set the moneyline odds for Miami at -200 and for Louisville at +170 to win outright.

What the bettors say

A plurality of bettors expect the Hurricanes will take care of the Cardinals on the road, according to the latest spread consensus picks for the game.

About 60 percent of bets project Miami will beat Louisville and cover the spread.

And the other 40 percent of wagers expect the Cardinals will either win in an upset, or keep the game within the narrow line.

Miami vs. Louisville projections

Miami is first among ACC teams with a 72 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff and will win 11.2 games this season, according to the FPI’s metrics.

The index suggests the Hurricanes are 17.7 points better than an average team on a neutral field, ranking No. 10 nationally.

That model gives Louisville a win total prediction of 7.8 games and lists the team as fifth in the ACC with a 7.9 percent shot at the playoff.

FPI forecasts the Cardinals will be 14.1 points better than an average team on a neutral field, good for 16th nationally.

College Football Power Index

Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance. 

Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting, and a team’s schedule.

Teams are ranked not in order of talent like in other rankings, but by a projected point margin per game against an average team on a neutral field.

AP top 25 rankings

First-place votes in parentheses

1. Texas (56)
2. Oregon (6)
3. Penn State
4. Ohio State
5. Georgia
6. Miami
7. Alabama
8. LSU
9. Iowa State
10. Clemson
11. Tennessee
12. Notre Dame
13. BYU
14. Texas A&M
15. Boise State
16. Indiana
17. Kansas State
18. Ole Miss
19. Missouri
20. Pittsburgh
21. SMU
22. Illinois
23. Army
24. Michigan
25. Navy

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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