Miami vs. Louisville score prediction by expert college football model

What the analytics predict for Miami vs. Louisville in this Week 8 college football game by an expert model that picks winners.

Miami vs. Louisville score prediction / Matt Pendleton-Imagn Images

ACC football is back this weekend as No. 6 Miami returns from its idle week with a date on the road against Louisville in college football’s Week 8 matchup. Let’s take a look at the latest prediction for the game from an expert football model that picks winners and scores.

Miami is one of college football’s dwindling number of undefeated teams, scoring over 38 points in each game and ranking 1st in FBS in scoring offense and average passing yardage.

Louisville was ranked before losing 2 straight, at Notre Dame and at home against SMU, falling to 2-1 in ACC conference play, but came back last week with a 4 point victory against Virginia.

What do the analytics make of this ACC matchup?

For that, let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how Miami and Louisville compare in this Week 8 college football game.

Miami vs. Louisville score prediction

As expected, the simulations favor the Hurricanes, but by a notably slim margin.

SP+ predicts that Miami will defeat Louisville by a projected score of 32 to 26 and to win the game by an expected margin of 5.9 points.

The model gives the Hurricanes a 64 percent chance of outright victory.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 180-167-3 against the spread with a 51.9 win percentage after going 26-26 (50%) last weekend.

Miami vs. Louisville odds, picks

Miami is a 4.5 point favorite against Louisville, according to the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel set the total at 61.5 points for the game.

And it lists the moneyline odds for Miami at -195 and for Louisville at +165 to win outright.

If you’re using this prediction to bet on the game, you should take ...

• Miami -4.5
• Miami to win -195
• Bet under 61.5 points

A plurality of bettors are siding with the Hurricanes to handle the Cardinals on the road, according to the latest spread consensus picks.

Almost 6 in 10 bets -- 59 percent -- suggest that Miami will win the game and cover the spread.

The other 41 percent of wagers forecast that Louisville will either win the game at home in an upset, or keep the score within the line.

Computer prediction

Other analytical models also favor the Hurricanes over the Cardinals.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Miami is projected to win the game outright in the majority 55.5 percent of the computer’s most simulations of the matchup.

That leaves Louisville as the expected winner in the remaining 44.5 percent of sims.

Miami is projected to be just 2.1 points better than Louisville on the same field, according to the model’s latest forecast, which wouldn’t be enough to cover the spread.

Miami is first among ACC teams with a 72.9 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff and will win 11.2 games this season, according to the FPI’s metrics.

That model gives Louisville a win total prediction of 7.7 games and a 7.2 percent shot at the 12-team playoff.

How to watch Miami vs. Louisville

When: Sat., Oct. 19
Time: 12 p.m. Eastern
TV: ABC network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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