Miami vs. USF score prediction by expert college football model

What the analytics predict for Miami vs. USF in this Week 4 college football game.

Miami Hurricanes vs. USF Bulls Prediction / Matt Pendleton-Imagn Images

USF looks to get another shot at a Power Four team this weekend as the Bulls welcome No. 8 Miami in this battle of Sunshine State schools in college football's Week 4 action on Saturday.

South Florida checks in at 2-1 and, while its 42-16 loss to Alabama may look lopsided, the Bulls played the Crimson Tide very close, only losing control late in the second half, but it was a 5-point game midway through the fourth quarter.

USF's strength is on the ground, ranking 8th nationally with 269 rushing yards per game, with quarterback Byrum Brown leading the way with 254 yards and 2 of the team's 11 rushing touchdowns, a compensation for the team ranking just 120th in passing output.

Throwing the ball is of no concern for the Hurricanes, whose transfer quarterback, Cameron Ward, has been a revelation, posting over 300 yards in every game, completing 73 percent of his attempts, and throwing 11 TDs against 1 pick, averaging 2nd nationally in passing production.

What do the analytics project for the matchup?

Let's check in with the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how Miami and USF compare in this Week 4 college football game.

Miami vs. USF score prediction

As expected, the simulations currently favor the Hurricanes in a big way.

SP+ predicts that Miami will defeat USF by a projected score of 41 to 20 and to win the game by an expected 20.8 points.

The model gives the Hurricanes a 90 percent chance of outright victory.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 75-68 against the spread with a 52.4 win percentage.

Point spread

Miami is a 16.5 point favorite against USF, according to the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook, which set the total at 65.5 points for the game.

FanDuel lists the moneyline odds for Miami at -800 and for USF at +550 to win outright.

If you're using this projection to bet on the game, you should take ...

• Miami -16.5
• Miami to win -800
• Bet under 65.5 points

Computer prediction

Other analytical models also suggest the Hurricanes will win easily.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Miami comes out as the projected winner in the majority 85.2 percent of the computer's updated simulations.

That leaves USF as the expected winner in the remaining 14.8 percent of sims.

The models forecast that Miami will be 16.2 points better than USF on the same field, not enough to cover this point spread.

Miami sits first among ACC teams with a 52.1 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff and will win 10.6 games this season, according to the FPI metrics.

That model gives USF a 5.2 percent shot at the playoff, second among AAC teams, and expects the Bulls will win 7.7 games this year.

Miami vs. USF schedule

When: Sat., Sept. 21
Time: 7 p.m. Eastern
TV: ESPN network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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