Miami vs. Virginia Tech score prediction by expert college football model

What the analytics predict for Miami vs. Virginia Tech in this Week 5 college football game.

Miami Hurricanes vs. Virginia Tech Hokies prediction / Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images

Coming off a statement road victory last week, No. 7 Miami looks to make a good first impression in ACC play at home against Virginia Tech in college football’s Week 5 action on Friday.

While the Hurricanes played USF close early on the road a week ago, they rallied to score 35 unanswered points in a 50-15 result that propelled the team to a No. 6 national ranking in scoring offense at more than 52 points per game.

Cam Ward has been a revelation for the offense, completing more than 72 percent of his passes for 14 touchdowns and 2 picks and throwing TDs to 8 different receivers so far behind a passing attack that ranks 2nd in FBS at 405 yards per game on average.

Tech is 10 combined points away from being undefeated with losses to Vanderbilt and Rutgers and over the last 3 seasons are 17-4 when allowing fewer than 24 points. When allowing more, the Hokies are 1-19.

What can we expect from the matchup? For that, let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how Miami and Virginia Tech compare in this Week 5 college football game.

Miami vs. Virginia Tech score prediction

As expected, the simulations currently favor the Hurricanes in the ACC opener.

SP+ predicts that Miami will defeat Virginia Tech by a projected score of 38 to 19 and to win the game by an expected 18.8 points.

The model gives the Hurricanes a strong 88 percent chance of outright victory.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 105-91-1 against the spread with a 53.6 win percentage.

Point spread

Miami is a 19.5 point favorite against Virginia Tech, according to the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook, which set the total at 53.5 points for the game.

FanDuel lists the moneyline odds for Miami at -1000 and for Virginia Tech at +700 to win outright.

If you’re using this projection to bet on the game, you should take ...

• Virginia Tech +19.5
• Miami to win -1000
• Bet over 53.5 points

Computer prediction

Other analytical models also strongly favor the Hurricanes against the Hokies.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Miami comes out as the projected winner in the majority 90.1 percent of the computer’s updated simulations for the game.

That leaves Virginia Tech as the expected winner in the remaining 9.9 percent of sims.

Miami is forecasted to be 20.2 points better than Virginia Tech on the same field, according to the models, enough to cover the spread.

More ... Miami vs. Virginia Tech prediction: What the analytics say

Miami is first among ACC teams with a 68.4 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff and will win 11.2 games, according to the FPI’s metrics.

Virginia Tech has a 0.7 percent shot at the playoff and will win 5.7 games, per the models.

How to watch Miami vs. Virginia Tech

When: Fri., Sept. 27
Time: 7:30 p.m. Eastern
TV: ESPN network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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