Miami vs. Virginia Tech prediction: Who wins, and why?

What to expect as Miami and Virginia Tech play the ACC football opener, with our updated prediction for the game.

Miami vs. Virginia Tech Prediction / Matt Pendleton-Imagn Images

Two of the ACC’s preseason hopefuls have played in different directions through four games, as Virginia Tech has started out at 2-2 while Miami is a perfect 4-0 working behind one of the nation’s best offenses as these conference rivals meet in college football’s Week 5 action on Friday.

Cam Ward has proved a revelation for the Hurricanes’ offense, as the transfer quarterback has led the team steadily up the rankings this season to their current No. 7 spot and into pole position in the odds to win the ACC championship.

Virginia Tech’s year has not gone as planned, losing a pair of one-score games against Vanderbilt and Rutgers last week heading into their ACC opener, but a good showing against an improved Miami team could pave the way for something greater going forward.

Kyron Drones was tapped as one of the preseason’s quarterbacks to watch, but the Hokies signal caller has slogged through a 765-yard effort, throwing four touchdowns and three interceptions.

What can we make of the matchup? Here’s what you should watch for as Virginia Tech and Miami renew their rivalry, along with our updated prediction for the game.

Miami vs. Virginia Tech prediction, preview

1. Tech on the ground. As quarterback Kyron Drones has struggled, the Hokies are getting production from back Bhayshul Tuten. He’s eclipsed 100 yards in 5 of his last 6 games, owns 4.45 yards after contact, and leads a Canes backfield that averages 6.1 yards per carry. 

But they could struggle against a Miami run-stop that’s 7th nationally allowing under 65 yards per game and just 2.47 yards per carry. The unit is 8th in FBS with 8.5 tackles for loss per game and is the 5th-best tackling team, per PFF.

2. Ward vs. VT’s secondary. Miami’s quarterback has posted 300 yards passing in every game this season, leading all players nationally with 14 touchdown passes, is the first Canes quarterback to throw for 300 yards and 3 or more TDs in his first four starts of a year, and sits at the helm of an offense that is 2nd with 605 yards per game on average.

But the Hokies’ back seven could present a credible threat to Ward and his receivers early on. The unit is a respectable 29th in FBS in pass defense, allowing teams to average just 160 yards passing against it this season, surrendering just 51.6 percent completion and 7 yards per attempt.

3. Limit explosive plays. Miami’s all-around great defense is very strong up front, averaging 4 sacks per game, the most nationally, and it’s going against a Tech protection unit that ranks 61st by PFF by allowing 2.5 sacks per game from opponents.

That power at the line has afforded Miami’s secondary more room to make plays and get aggressive against opposing receivers, surrendering just 7 passes of at least 20 yards and put together, the secondary is 12th nationally in pass efficiency defense.

What the analytics say

Most analytical models favor the Hurricanes to take care of the Hokies in this one.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Miami is projected to win the game in 90.1 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations.

Virginia Tech comes out the expected victor in the remaining 9.9 percent of sims.

The model forecasts that Miami will be 20 points better than Virginia Tech on the same field.

More ... Miami vs. Virginia Tech: What the analytics say

Who is favored?

Miami is a 17.5 point favorite against Virginia Tech, according to the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook, which set the total at 53.5 points for the game.

FanDuel listed the moneyline odds for Miami at -850 and for Virginia Tech at +570 to win outright.

Miami vs. Virginia Tech prediction

While the Hokies have presented a credible challenge to opposing passers, the truth is they haven’t met anything like what Miami will be able to throw at them. 

Miami is the more consistent team on all fronts, with the bodies to contain Drones’ mobility, bottle up Tech’s run game, and properly test Tech’s secondary defenses with superior receiver skill.

College Football HQ picks ...

• Miami wins 38-13
• Covers the spread
• And hits the under

More ... Miami vs. Virginia Tech score prediction by expert model

How to watch Miami vs. Virginia Tech

When: Fri., Sept. 27
Time: 7:30 p.m. Eastern
TV: ESPN network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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