Miami vs. Virginia Tech predictions: What the analytics say

Expert predictions for Virginia Tech vs. Miami by a proven football computer model.

Miami vs. Virginia Tech football predictions / Sam Navarro-Imagn Images

This weekend finds No. 7 Miami playing host to Virginia Tech in the ACC conference opener as college football’s Week 5 action kicks off on Saturday night.

Miami has scored more than 40 points in every game this season and more than 50 in three games, ranking No. 5 nationally in scoring offense with 52.3 points per game and 2nd in FBS with 405 passing yards on average behind quarterback Cam Ward.

Virginia Tech is 10 combined points away from being undefeated in losses to Vanderbilt and Rutgers, posting the 98th most production passing attack in the nation and is 9 points better than its competition so far this season.

Looking ahead to this week’s matchup, let’s check out the latest college football predictions from the Football Power Index computer prediction model.

The model simulates every NCAA college football game 20,000 times and uses key analytics from both teams to predict outcomes based on a projected scoring margin per game.

Miami vs. Virginia Tech predictions

The index has a clear favorite in this game, and it’s siding with the home team.

Miami comes out as the projected winner in the overwhelming 90.2 percent of the computer’s updated predictions this week.

That leaves Virginia Tech as the expected winner in the remaining 9.8 percent of sims.

Miami is projected to be 20.2 points better than Virginia Tech on the same field, according to the models.

If so, that would be enough to cover the spread this week.

That’s because Miami is a 19 point favorite against Virginia Tech, according to the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook.

The book listed the moneyline odds for Miami at -1000 and for Virginia Tech at +700 to win outright.

FanDuel listed the total at 54.5 points for the game.

FPI projects that Miami will win 11.2 games this season, and that it has the ACC’s best chance at 68.2 percent to qualify for the College Football Playoff.

Virginia Tech is 10th among ACC teams with an 0.7 percent shot at the playoff and will win 5.6 games this season, according to the FPI’s metrics.

College Football Power Index

Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance. 

Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting, and a team’s schedule.

Teams are ranked not in order of talent like in other rankings, but by a projected point margin per game against an average team on a neutral field.

AP top 25 poll

First-place votes in parentheses

1. Texas (44)
2. Georgia (13)
3. Ohio State (5)
4. Alabama
5. Tennessee
6. Ole Miss
7. Miami
8. Oregon
9. Penn State
10. Utah
11. Missouri
12. Michigan
13. USC
14. LSU
15. Louisville
16. Notre Dame
17. Clemson
18. Iowa State
19. Illinois
20. Oklahoma State
21. Oklahoma
22. BYU
23. Kansas State
24. Texas A&M
25. Boise State

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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