Michigan vs. Fresno State score prediction by college football expert model

What the analytics predict for Michigan vs. Fresno State in this Week 1 college football game.

Michigan vs. Fresno State prediction by a college football analytic model that picks winners. / Matthew O'Haren-USA TODAY Sports

Defending national champion Michigan returns to the field on Saturday to kick off the 2024 college football season from the Big House against Fresno State in a highly-anticipated opener that finds the Wolverines debuting a new head coach and plenty of new talent on the field.

Sherrone Moore steps in for Jim Harbaugh to lead the program and he's had plenty of decisions to make at important positions, including at quarterback after the departure of J.J. McCarthy to the NFL.

What do the experts think of the matchup? For that, let's turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of Michigan vs. Fresno State with the latest betting information for the game.

Michigan vs. Fresno State prediction

As expected, the simulation models clearly favor Michigan to care of business in the opener.

SP+ predicts the Wolverines will defeat Fresno State by a projected score of 39 to 11 and to win the game by an expected 27.6 point margin.

The model gives Michigan the near-consensus 96 percent chance of outright victory.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

Michigan vs. Fresno State game odds

Michigan is a 20.5 point favorite against Fresno State, according to the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook, which set the total at 45.5 points for the game.

FanDuel lists the moneyline odds for Michigan at -1800 and for Fresno State at +920.

If you're using this projection to bet on the game, you should take...

• Michigan -20.5
• Michigan to win -1800
• Over 45.5 points

Computer prediction

Other analytic models also clearly expect Michigan to come away with the easy Week 1 victory.

That includes College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times and pick winners.

The model projects Michigan to be the outright winner in a majority 89.1 percent of its simulations, while Fresno State comes out the winner in the remaining 10.9 percent of sims.

The index estimates that Michigan is 16.5 points better than Fresno State on any field in both teams' current composition, not enough to cover this line.

Michigan is projected to win 8.2 games this season by the model's estimate and sits in fourth-place in the current Big Ten title race at 7.0 percent odds to win the league championship.

The model contends that Michigan is 14.9 points better than an average opponent on a neutral field, good for No. 11 nationally and No. 4 among Big Ten teams.

The computers project Fresno State will win 7.3 games this season and sits in second-place with a 17.9 percent chance to win the Mountain West conference title.

Michigan vs. Fresno State game time, schedule

When: Sat., Aug. 31
Time: 7:30 p.m. Eastern
TV: NBC network

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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