Michigan vs. Arkansas State score prediction by expert college football model

What the analytics predict for Michigan vs. Arkansas State in this Week 3 college football game.

Michigan Wolverines vs. Arkansas State Red Wolves Prediction / Kimberly P. Mitchell / USA TODAY NETWORK

Defending national champion Michigan looks to get a rebound coming out of last week's loss at home in a matchup against Arkansas State in college football's Week 3 action on Saturday.

The No. 17 ranked Wolverines need a pick-me-up after coming out the wrong end of a 19-point decision in the Big House against Texas last week, a matchup that exposed the team's want of a game-changer at the quarterback position following J.J. McCarthy's departure to the NFL.

Arkansas State presents a chance to resurrect Michigan's passing fortunes, as the Red Wolves have allowed just under 200 yards passing per game and come in ranked 102nd nationally in scoring defense, allowing a shade under four touchdowns on average.

Jaylen Raynor leads the Red Wolves in passing and rushing, posting 572 yards in the air while completing 57 percent of his attempts, and running for 2 scores while averaging 3.6 yards per carry.

What do the analytics suggest about the matchup? For that, let's turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how Michigan and Arkansas State compare in this Week 3 college football game.

Michigan vs. Arkansas State score prediction

As expected, the simulations favor the Wolverines to hold serve at home this week.

SP+ predicts that Michigan will defeat Arkansas State by a projected score of 40 to 11 and to win the game outright by an expected 28.9 points.

The model gives the Wolverines a strong 96 percent chance of victory.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 47-44 against the spread with a 51.6 win percentage.

Point spread

Michigan is a 22.5 point favorite against Arkansas State, according to the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook, which set the total at 47.5 points for the game.

FanDuel lists the moneyline odds for Michigan at -2800 to win outright and for Arkansas State at +1160.

If you're using this projection to bet on the game, you should take ...

• Michigan -22.5
• Wolverines to win -2800
• Bet over 47.5 points

Computer prediction

Other analytical models also favor the Wolverines to dominate the Red Wolves this week.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Michigan comes out the projected winner of the game in 92.7 percent of the computer's updated simulations, while Arkansas State wins out in the remaining 7.3 percent of sims.

The index calculates that Michigan will be 23.5 points better than Arkansas State on the same field, also enough to cover the spread.

Michigan will win 7.2 games this season and is sixth among Big Ten teams with an 11.5 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff, according to the models.

The computer forecasts that Arkansas State will win 5.8 games and has an 0.4 percent chance to make the 12-team playoff, eighth among Sun Belt teams.

Michigan vs. Arkansas State schedule

When: Sat., Sept. 14
Time: 12 p.m. Eastern
TV: Big Ten Network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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