Michigan vs. Illinois football picks: What the oddsmakers say

Oddsmakers reveal their early prediction for Michigan vs. Illinois in this Week 8 college football game.

Michigan vs. Illinois football picks, odds / Joe Nicholson-Imagn Images

Big Ten football returns this weekend as No. 24 Michigan hits the road against No. 22 Illinois in college football’s Week 8 action on Saturday. Let’s check in with some of the early predictions for the game from the nation’s oddsmakers.

Michigan is coming off its first loss in Big Ten play against Washington two weeks ago and still lacks a credible vertical threat, ranking 131st out of 134 FBS teams in passing production, and as a result is 102nd nationally in scoring offense with 23.5 points per game.

Illinois won its two Big Ten games by a combined 8 points with a 21-7 decision at Penn State the school’s only loss heading into this first of two matchups against ranked conference opponents.

What do the wiseguys think of this weekend’s Big Ten matchup?

Let’s look at how the oddsmakers are predicting the Michigan vs. Illinois game this weekend.

Michigan vs. Illinois picks, odds

The books call the road team the early favorite here, but by the slimmest of margins.

Michigan is a 1 point favorite against Illinois, according to the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 43.5 points for the game.

And it set the moneyline odds for Michigan at -120 and for Illinois at Even to win outright.

Michigan: -1 (-115)
Illinois: +1 (-105)

Over 43.5 points: -110
Under 43.5 points: -110

Michigan vs. Illinois trends

Michigan is 1-5 against the spread (16.7%) so far this season overall ...

Illinois is 4-1-1 (80%) ATS in 2024 ...

The total has gone over in 4 of Michigan’s last 5 games ...

Illinois is 5-0 against the spread in its last 5 games as the underdog ...

Michigan is 2-6 against the spread in its last 8 games against Illinois ...

Illinois is 1-9-1 against the spread in its last 11 games on a Saturday at home ...

The total went over in 10 of Michigan’s 12 games against a Big Ten opponent ...

The total went under in 4 of Illinois’ last 6 games ...

When Michigan has the ball

Michigan’s three quarterbacks have thrown for a combined 690 yards and averaged 5.2 yards per pass with 6 touchdowns and 8 interceptions this season.

Kalel Mullings leads the Wolverines’ rushing attack, which, in essence, is the team’s offense right now, posting 589 yards on the ground with a 6.5 ypc average and 6 of Michigan’s 9 rushing touchdowns.

Donovan Edwards scored the team’s other 3 rushing touchdowns and has 353 yards on the season off 73 carries for a 4.8 yard per run average.

Tight end Colston Loveland is Michigan’s principal receiving threat, catching 29 passes for 261 yards and has 2 of the team’s 6 touchdown catches. 

When Illinois has the ball

Illinois is 87th in FBS in rushing production, averaging 139.5 yards per game, and is 58th nationally in passing output with 243 yards in the air.

Luke Altmyer is a 68 percent passer with 14 touchdowns and 1 interceptions, but he’s been sacked 19 times, ranking 122nd nationally in that category, and 6th worst among Power Four teams.

Pat Bryant is Altmyer’s main target, catching 27 passes for 452 yards and 7 of the team’s 14 receiving touchdowns.

Tight end Tanner Arkin is the only other receiver with more than 1 touchdown (2), and Zakhari Franklin is the Illini’s second-most productive pass catcher with 346 yards and a score.

Spread consensus picks, score prediction

A slight majority of bettors expect Illinois to come out ahead in this Big Ten clash.

56 percent of bets predict the Illini will defeat Michigan in an upset.

The other 44 percent of wagers expect Michigan will cover the 1 point spread as the favorite.

The game’s implied score suggests a very close victory for the Wolverines.

When taking the point spread and total into consideration, it’s implied that Michigan will defeat Illinois by a projected score of 22 to 21.

Our early pick: Illinois +1 ... While the Wolverines have the capacity to slow the Illini ground game and make that offense one-dimensional, Luke Altmyer should have an edge going against a Michigan secondary that has not played up to expectations this season.

How to watch Michigan vs. Illinois

When: Sat., Oct. 19
Time: 3:30 p.m. ET | 2:30 p.m. CT
TV: CBS network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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