Michigan vs. Illinois score prediction by expert college football model

What the analytics predict for Michigan vs. Illinois in this Week 8 college football game by an expert model that picks winners and projects scores.

Michigan vs. Illinois score prediction / Junfu Han / USA TODAY NETWORK

Big Ten football is back this weekend as No. 24 Michigan goes on the road against No. 22 Illinois in college football’s Week 8 action. Let’s check in with the latest prediction for the game using an expert model that picks winners and projects scores.

Michigan lost its first Big Ten game two weeks ago against Washington and still lacks a vertical threat, ranking 131st out of 134 FBS teams in passing offense, and as a result is 102nd nationally in scoring offense by averaging just 23.5 points per game.

Illinois won its two Big Ten games by a combined 8 points with a 21-7 decision at Penn State the school’s only loss heading into this first of two matchups against ranked conference opponents.

What do the analytics suggest for this battle of ranked Big Ten rivals?

For that, let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how Michigan and Illinois compare in this Week 8 college football game.

Michigan vs. Illinois score prediction

The models are siding with the Wolverines over the Illini, but expect a close game.

SP+ predicts that Michigan will defeat Illinois by a projected score of 26 to 21 and will win the game by an expected 4.9 point margin.

The model gives the Wolverines a 62 percent chance of outright victory in the game.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 180-167-3 against the spread with a 51.9 win percentage after going 26-26 (50%) last weekend.

Michigan vs. Illinois picks, odds

Michigan is a 3.5 point favorite against Illinois, according to the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel set the total at 44.5 points for the game.

And it lists the moneyline odds for Michigan at -170 and for Illinois at +145 to win outright.

If you’re using this prediction to bet on the game, you should take ...

• Michigan -3.5
• Wolverines to win -170
• Bet over 44.5 points

A plurality of bettors expects the Illini will make this a game against the Wolverines, according to the latest spread consensus picks.

Almost 6 in 10 bets, 58 percent, predict that Illinois will either win the game in an upset or keep the score within the narrow line.

The other 42 percent of wagers project that Michigan will win the game and cover the spread.

Computer prediction

Other analytical models also favor the Wolverines over the Illini in this game.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Michigan is projected to win the game outright in a majority 59.6 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations of the matchup.

That leaves Illinois as the expected winner in the remaining 40.4 percent of sims.

Michigan is projected to be 3.8 points better than Illinois on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast, also enough to cover the spread.

Illinois is sixth among Big Ten teams with a 4.1 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff and will win 7.7 games this season, according to the FPI’s metrics.

That model gives Michigan a 2.3 percent chance at the playoff and a win total prediction of 6.8 games.

How to watch Michigan vs. Illinois

When: Sat., Oct. 19
Time: 3:30 p.m. ET | 2:30 p.m. CT
TV: CBS network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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