Michigan vs. Illinois prediction: Who wins, and why?

What to watch for as Michigan and Illinois meet in this Week 8 college football game with our updated prediction for the matchup.

Michigan vs. Illinois Prediction / Joe Nicholson-Imagn Images

Big Ten football is back this weekend as No. 24 Michigan goes on the road against No. 22 Illinois in college football’s Week 8 action on Saturday. Here’s what you should watch for as the Wolverines and Fighting Illini square off, with our updated prediction for the game.

Michigan is coming off its first loss in Big Ten play, and its second loss of the season, and still lacks a credible vertical threat, ranking 131st out of 134 FBS teams in passing output.

Illinois won its two Big Ten games by a combined 8 points with a 14-point decision at Penn State the school’s only loss, and coming out of a nail-biting 1-point overtime win against lowly Purdue, heading into this first of two matchups against ranked conference opponents.

What can we expect as the Wolverines take on the Fighting Illini this weekend?

Here’s what you should watch for as Michigan and Illinois meet in this Week 8 college football game, with our updated prediction.

Michigan vs. Illinois prediction: What to watch

Michigan vs. Illinois Prediction / Ron Johnson-Imagn Images

When Michigan has the ball

Michigan’s three quarterbacks have thrown for a combined 690 yards and averaged 5.2 yards per pass with 6 touchdowns and 8 interceptions this season.

This week, it falls on seventh-year senior Jack Tuttle, who gave the offense a little juice last week, to take over after going through Alex Orji and Davis Warren to no avail.

Michigan has 1 less passing touchdown than Army despite throwing the ball 87 more times, and is 102nd in FBS in scoring offense, averaging 23.5 points per game.

The Wolverines are 74th nationally in third down success, converting 30 of 77 opportunities for a 38.96 percent rate.

In the red zone, Michigan has turned 90.91 percent of offensive opportunities into points, scoring 10 of 11 times, including 8 touchdowns (72.73%). But those 11 chances are the second-fewest nationally.

Michigan is 130th among 134 FBS teams with 53 plays gaining 10 or more yards this season, 131st with 16 plays of 20-plus yards, and 109th with 9 gains of at least 30 yards.

Michigan is 40th nationally allowing 8 total sacks this season, and surrenders 1.33 sacks per game.

The Wolverines are 34th in FBS allowing 27 tackles for loss this season, and surrender 4.5 TFLs surrendered to opponents per game.

Kalel Mullings leads the Wolverines’ rushing attack, which, in essence, is the team’s offense right now, posting 589 yards on the ground with a 6.5 ypc average and 6 of Michigan’s 9 rushing touchdowns.

Donovan Edwards scored the team’s other 3 rushing touchdowns and has 353 yards on the season off 73 carries for a 4.8 yard per run average.

Michigan is 3rd nationally in run defense, allowing just 2.86 yards per carry and over 76 yards per game, and 40th in rushing offense, averaging 191 yards per game and 5.06 yards per run.

Tight end Colston Loveland is Michigan’s principal receiving threat, catching 29 passes for 261 yards and has 2 of the team’s 6 touchdown catches. 

When Illinois has the ball

Illinois is 87th in FBS in rushing production, averaging 139.5 yards per game, and is 58th nationally in passing output with 243 yards in the air.

Luke Altmyer is a 68 percent passer with 14 touchdowns and 1 interception, but he’s been sacked 19 times, ranking 122nd nationally in that category, and 6th worst among Power Four teams.

Pat Bryant is Altmyer’s main target, catching 27 passes for 452 yards and 7 of the team’s 14 receiving touchdowns.

Tight end Tanner Arkin is the only other receiver with more than 1 touchdown (2), and Zakhari Franklin is the Illini’s second-most productive pass catcher with 346 yards and a score.

Illinois is 49th nationally in scoring offense, averaging 31 points per game and in third down conversion success, moving the chains on 45.83 percent of chances (33 of 72).

And the team is No. 9 in FBS in the red zone, scoring on 24 of 25 opportunities (96%) with 17 of those 24 scores being converted into touchdowns, the 9th most.

Illinois is 90th nationally with 10 plays of at least 30 yards, is 31st with 33 plays of 20-plus yards, and is 50th with 90 gains of 10 or more yards.

Protecting the quarterback is an issue for the Illini, who rank 119th nationally by allowing 19 sacks on the year, including an average of 3.17 sacks surrendered per game.

Those protection problems extend to negative plays allowed overall, as Illinois is surrendering 7.5 tackles for loss per game and has given up 45 TFLs total on the year.

Defending the run is a vulnerability for Illinois, which ranks 77th in FBS allowing over 149 yards per game, including a 4.54 yard per carry average, but has surrendered just 5 touchdowns on the ground.

What the analytics say

Most analytical models favor the Wolverines over the Illini in this game.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Michigan is projected to win the game outright in a majority 59.6 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations of the matchup.

That leaves Illinois as the expected winner in the remaining 40.4 percent of sims.

Michigan is projected to be 3.8 points better than Illinois on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.

More ... Michigan vs. Illinois prediction: What the analytics say

Who is favored?

Michigan is a 3.5 point favorite against Illinois, according to the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 44.5 points for the game (Over -110, Under -110).

And it set the moneyline odds for Michigan at -185 and for Illinois at +155 to win outright.

A plurality of bettors expect the home team to make this a game, according to the latest spread consensus picks for the matchup.

Illinois is getting 59 percent of bets to either win in an upset or keep the game within the narrow line.

The other 41 percent of wagers project Michigan to win the game and cover the spread.

Michigan vs. Illinois prediction: Who wins?

One area to watch is how well Michigan’s gifted front seven tacklers can get after an Illinois protection unit that comes into the game ranked 125th nationally in pressure rate allowed.

Altmyer may lead the Big Ten with 14 passing touchdowns, but a quarterback under as much pressure as he has been won’t be able to build as much of a rhythm as he wants with all those Wolverines in his face.

Still, it’s not a secret that Michigan’s vertical game isn’t going anywhere. 

And while it has the power to control the tempo and time of possession on the ground, that recipe could falter against an Illinois front seven that has the bodies to load the box and frustrate the Wolverines’ momentum while Altmyer finds just enough on the back end.

College Football HQ picks ...

• Illinois wins 24-21
• In an upset
• And hits the under

More ... Michigan vs. Illinois score prediction by expert model

How to watch Michigan vs. Illinois

When: Sat., Oct. 19
Time: 3:30 p.m. Eastern
TV: CBS network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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