Michigan vs. Indiana football prediction: What the analytics say

An expert analytical model offers a prediction for Michigan vs. Indiana in this Week 11 college football game.

Michigan vs. Indiana football prediction / Joe Nicholson-Imagn Images

Big Ten football kicks off this weekend as defending champion Michigan hits the road against surprise contender No. 8 Indiana. Let’s check in with the latest prediction for the matchup from an analytical model that simulates games.

Indiana is 9-0 for the first time ever thanks to an offensive renaissance under first-year coach Curt Cignetti, ranking third nationally by averaging 47 points per game this season.

Michigan isn’t quite the same offensive behemoth, ranking 116th nationally in scoring and 128th in passing, dropping to 3-3 in Big Ten play and losing three of its last four games.

Looking ahead to this week’s matchup, let’s check out the latest college football predictions from the Football Power Index computer prediction model.

The model simulates every NCAA college football game 20,000 times and uses key analytics from both teams and picks winners based on a projected scoring margin per game.

Michigan vs. Indiana predictions

As expected, the Hoosiers have a decided edge over the Wolverines, according to the models.

Indiana is a big favorite at home, as it comes out ahead in the majority 86.9 percent of the computer’s simulations for the matchup.

That leaves Michigan as the presumptive winner in the remaining 13.1 percent of sims.

In total, the Hoosiers come out on top in 17,380 of the index’s calculations for the game, while the Wolverines edge out IU in the other 2,620 predictions.

But those figures represent a mere win-loss calculation for both teams. How do they translate into a projected margin of victory in the game?

Indiana is projected to be 16.8 points better than Michigan on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.

If so, that would be enough to cover the spread.

That’s because Indiana is a 13.5 point favorite against Michigan, according to the updated lines posted at FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel set the total at 48.5 points for the game (Over -110, Under -110).

And it lists the moneyline odds for Indiana at -710 and for Michigan at +490 to win outright.

What the bettors say

A plurality of bettors expect the Hoosiers to dominate the Wolverines this week, according to the latest spread consensus picks for the game.

Indiana is getting 66 percent of bets to win the game and cover the generous point spread in the process.

The other 34 percent of wagers expect Michigan will either win outright in an upset, or will keep the margin under 2 touchdowns in a loss.

Indiana vs. Michigan future predictions

Indiana is third in the Big Ten with an 86.5 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff, according to the FPI’s metrics.

That model gives the Hoosiers a win total prediction of 11.3 games this season.

Michigan is projected to win 6 games in 2024, according to the index.

That’s enough for an 81.3 percent chance to become eligible for a bowl game this postseason.

College Football Power Index

Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction models are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance.

Rankings and score predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting, and a team’s schedule.

Teams are ranked not in order of talent like in other rankings, but by a projected point margin per game against an average team on a neutral field.

AP top 25 rankings

First-place votes in parentheses

1. Oregon (62)
2. Georgia
3. Ohio State
4. Miami
5. Texas
6. Penn State
7. Tennessee
8. Indiana
9. BYU
10. Notre Dame
11. Alabama
12. Boise State
13. SMU
14. LSU
15. Texas A&M
16. Ole Miss
17. Iowa State
18. Army
19. Clemson
20. Washington State
21. Colorado
22. Kansas State
23. Pittsburgh
24. Vanderbilt
25. Louisville

How to watch Michigan vs. Indiana

When: Sat., Nov. 9
Time: 3:30 p.m. Eastern
TV: CBS network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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