Michigan vs. Indiana score prediction by expert football model

What the analytics predict for Michigan vs. Indiana in this Week 11 college football game by an expert model that picks winners.

Michigan vs. Indiana score prediction / Rich Janzaruk/Herald-Times / USA TODAY NETWORK

A surprise contender this season, No. 8 Indiana comes home in a matchup against defending national champion Michigan on Saturday. Let’s check in with the latest prediction for the game from an expert football model that projects scores and picks winners.

Indiana debuted at No. 8 in the first College Football Playoff rankings behind an attack that sits No. 2 nationally with nearly 47 points per game on average and tied for first-place in the Big Ten standings moving into November football.

Michigan fell to 3-3 in Big Ten play and 5-4 overall, losing three of the last four games, including a 21-point loss at home against Oregon last week, ranking 116th in scoring and 128th in passing.

What do the analytical models suggest for when the Hoosiers and Wolverines meet in this Big Ten matchup?

For that, let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how Michigan and Indiana compare in this Week 11 college football game.

Michigan vs. Indiana score prediction

So far, the models are siding with the Hoosiers by a double-digit margin against the Wolverines.

SP+ predicts that Indiana will defeat Michigan by a projected score of 30 to 18 and will win the game by an expected margin of 12.5 points.

The model gives the Hoosiers a strong 78 percent chance of outright victory over the Wolverines.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 262-244-7 against the spread with a 51.8 win percentage after going 23-23-2 (50%) last weekend.

Michigan vs. Indiana odds, how to pick

Indiana is a 13.5 point favorite against Michigan, according to the updated lines posted at FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 49.5 points for the game (Over -110, Under -110).

And it set the moneyline odds for Indiana at -630 and for Michigan at +450 to win outright.

If you’re using this prediction to bet on the game, you should take ...

• Michigan +13.5
• Indiana to win -630
• Bet under 49.5 points

If you do, you’ll be in a minority of bettors, most of whom are taking the Hoosiers to dominate the Wolverines, according to the latest spread consensus picks for the game.

Indiana is getting 65 percent of bets to win the game by at least 2 touchdowns and cover the spread.

The other 35 percent of wagers project Michigan will keep the game within 2 touchdowns in a loss or will win the game outright in an upset.

Michigan vs. Indiana splits

Indiana ranks No. 1 nationally with a plus-27.8 point differential this season, while Michigan is averaging 2.3 points worse than opponents, ranking 81st in FBS in that category.

Those margins have increased for both teams over the last three games.

Michigan has worsened to being 9.3 points worse than opponents in that time, while Indiana has improved to averaging 33.3 points better than the competition over that span.

Playing at home this season, the Hoosiers have been almost four touchdowns better than opponents, averaging 27.8 points better than the opposition.

Michigan has been 12 points worse than opponents when playing on the road in 2024.

Indiana is No. 1 in college football by averaging 0.633 points per play on average, while Michigan allows 0.341 points per play, ranking 42nd in FBS.

Michigan is 86th in the country with 0.346 points per play on offense, compared to an Indiana defense allowing 0.232 points per play, ranking 7th nationally.

Computer predictions

Most analytical models are siding with the Hoosiers over the Wolverines in this matchup.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Indiana is the big favorite at home, coming out ahead in the majority 86.8 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations for the matchup.

That leaves Michigan as the expected winner in the remaining 13.2 percent of sims.

How does that translate to an expected margin of victory in the game?

Indiana is projected to be 16.8 points better than Michigan on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.

Michigan vs. Indiana future projections

Indiana is third among Big Ten teams with an 82.9 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff, according to the FPI’s metrics.

That model gives the Hoosiers a win total projection of 11.3 games this season.

Michigan is out of the College Football Playoff picture this year, but should be in the mix for a spot in a bowl game of some kind, according to the projections.

The index gives the Wolverines an 82.3 percent chance to play in the postseason.

And it projects Michigan will win 6 games in ‘24.

How to watch Michigan vs. Indiana

When: Sat., Nov. 9
Time: 3:30 p.m. Eastern
TV: CBS network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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