Michigan vs. Minnesota football predictions: What the analytics say

Expert predictions for Michigan vs. Minnesota by the computer model that picks winners.

Michigan vs. Minnesota football predictions / Rick Osentoski-Imagn Images

Minnesota is looking to improve to .500 in Big Ten play, while Michigan is looking to avoid it as the Wolverines play host to the Golden Gophers in Saturday’s Week 5 action.

Michigan nudged up the polls to No. 12 this week and saved its playoff hopes with a statement win against USC at home in the conference opener, despite passing for just 32 yards.

Minnesota could struggle with the Wolverines’ ground game after surrendering over 200 rushing yards to Kaleb Johnson in a 17-point loss to Iowa a week ago, while itself averaging 108th nationally in rushing capacity at 117 yards per game.

Looking ahead to this week’s matchup, let’s check out the latest college football predictions from the Football Power Index computer prediction model.

The model simulates every NCAA college football game 20,000 times and uses key analytics from both teams to predict outcomes based on a projected scoring margin per game.

Michigan vs. Minnesota predictions

As expected, the models are siding with the Wolverines in this one.

Michigan comes out as the projected winner in 77 percent of the computer’s updated simulations.

That leaves Minnesota as the forecasted winner in the remaining 23 percent of sims.

Michigan will be 11.2 points better than Minnesota on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the models.

But that’s still enough to cover the spread.

That’s because Michigan is a 9 point favorite against Minnesota, according to the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook.

The book listed the total at just 35.5 points for the game.

FanDuel set the moneyline odds for Michigan at -360 and for Minnesota at +290 to win outright.

Bettors are almost evenly divided on how they’re interpreting the game.

A slight majority of them, 52 percent, are predicting that Michigan will win the game and cover the spread.

The other 48 percent of wagers suggest Minnesota will keep it closer, or win in an upset.

Michigan is sixth among Big Ten teams with an 11.6 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff, and will win 7.5 games this season, according to the FPI’s metrics.

That model forecasts the Golden Gophers will win 4.9 games and has a 32.4 percent shot to become eligible for a bowl game.

College Football Power Index

Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance. 

Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting, and a team’s schedule.

Teams are ranked not in order of talent like in other rankings, but by a projected point margin per game against an average team on a neutral field.

AP top 25 poll

First-place votes in parentheses

1. Texas (44)
2. Georgia (13)
3. Ohio State (5)
4. Alabama
5. Tennessee
6. Ole Miss
7. Miami
8. Oregon
9. Penn State
10. Utah
11. Missouri
12. Michigan
13. USC
14. LSU
15. Louisville
16. Notre Dame
17. Clemson
18. Iowa State
19. Illinois
20. Oklahoma State
21. Oklahoma
22. BYU
23. Kansas State
24. Texas A&M
25. Boise State

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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