Michigan vs. Minnesota prediction: Who wins, and why?

Our updated prediction for Michigan vs. Minnesota in this Week 5 college football game.

Michigan vs. Minnesota Prediction / Rick Osentoski-Imagn Images

A pair of Big Ten rivals meet up in the Big House this weekend, one looking to avoid falling to .500 in conference play and the other hoping to get there, as No. 12 Michigan welcomes Minnesota in college football’s Week 5 action on Saturday.

Michigan made the statement of the season last week, avoiding a second loss in four games by holding off a favored USC making its B1G debut, scoring a late touchdown for the win.

And that was after a quarterback change, as the Wolverines swapped Davis Warren for Alex Orji, who is averaging 2.6 yards per attempt at the helm of an aerial attack that is 129th among 134 FBS teams in production.

Minnesota dropped a 17-point decision against Iowa in its Big Ten opener last week that exposed what could be a vulnerability running the ball, where it ranks 108th nationally, going forward.

What can we expect from the matchup? Here’s what you should watch for as Michigan faces off against Minnesota, along with our updated prediction for the game.

Michigan vs. Minnesota prediction, preview

1. Ground and pound. Despite installing Alex Orji at quarterback, the Wolverines were still unable to get anything going in the air, throwing for just 32 yards against USC. He should struggle against a Gopher defense that is 2nd nationally in pass efficiency and overall pass defense. 

Still, Orji is capable enough as a rusher to make Michigan’s one-dimensional offense work, given how strong that dimension is. Kalel Mullings, a former linebacker, has been a revelation for the Wolverines ground game, averaging 8.1 yards per carry with 429 total yards.

2. Gophers can run, too. Darius Taylor may have been bottled up against Iowa a week ago, but the Minnesota back is a proven commodity in the ground game for this program. He averaged more than 133 yards per game in 6 outings last year and this fall is averaging 6.3 yards per carry.

Taylor needs to get going early against a strong Michigan run defense that comes into the game ranked No. 12 in FBS by allowing just 76.5 yards per game on the ground, all of 3.06 yards per attempt from backs, and has surrendered just 1 rushing touchdown. Taylor ran 10 times for 34 yards against the Hawkeyes but has 4 touchdowns already this season.

3. Battle at the line. Michigan’s only loss this season, at home to Texas, came because of its inability to generate the kind of pressure it usually does defensively. Consequently, it was unable to get a single sack against a front that was better disciplined and more physical than its counterpart.

In its statement win of the year, Michigan repeatedly battered USC’s line, bringing the heat up the middle and containing any outlets to the perimeter by stuffing the edges and shrinking the pocket. The result? A remarkable 27 pressures.

Kenneth Grant and Mason Graham have the tonnage and the agility to stop you cold in the middle of Michigan’s front seven and Josaiah Stewart is probably the best edge rusher in the Big Ten, a combination that doesn’t spell anything good for a Gophers offense that is 80th in yards per play.

What the analytics say

Most analytical models project that Michigan will dominate in this Big Ten matchup.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Michigan is projected to win the game in the majority 76.8 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations.

That leaves Minnesota as the expected winner in the remaining 23.2 percent of sims.

Michigan is projected to be 11.1 points better than Minnesota on the same field, according to the model’s latest forecast.

More ... Michigan vs. Minnesota prediction: What the analytics say

Who is favored?

Michigan is a 10.5 point favorite against Minnesota, according to the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the moneyline odds for Michigan at -465 and for Minnesota at +340 to win outright.

And its set the total at 34.5 points for the game.

Most bettors are expecting Michigan to handle the Gophers this weekend.

60 percent of wagers project the Wolverines will win the game and cover the spread.

The remaining 40 percent of bets expect the Gophers to keep the game within the line, if not upset.

Michigan vs. Minnesota prediction

Say what you will about Michigan not getting a better quarterback in the transfer portal, and how its inability to do anything vertically will ultimately cost the team come the postseason.

That’s a fair concern, but in late September, the combination of a dominating ground attack, a suffocating defensive front seven, and a competent, agile secondary are giving good early returns.

Minnesota does technically have the superior passing game, and Michigan can be susceptible if Max Brosmer is able to get the ball out real quick and connect on his mid-range passes.

But if the Gophers can’t add to that repertoire by consistently churning out short and medium gains on the ground, then the Wolverines have the bodies to shut you down at the line.

College Football HQ picks ...

• Michigan wins 27-16
• Covers the spread
• And hits the over

More: Michigan vs. Minnesota score prediction by expert football model

How to watch Michigan vs. Minnesota

When: Sat., Sept. 28
Time: 12 p.m. ET | 11 a.m. CT
TV: Fox network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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