Michigan vs. Minnesota score prediction by expert college football model

What the analytics predict for Michigan vs. Minnesota in this Week 5 college football game.

Michigan vs. Minnesota football prediction / Matt Krohn-Imagn Images

One of college football’s oldest rivalry games and the nation’s oldest involving an actual trophy kicks off this weekend as No. 12 Michigan welcomes Minnesota in the battle for the Little Brown Jug in Saturday’s Week 5 action.

Michigan has taken all but 2 of these games since 1987, and the Wolverines own the 77-25-3 advantage in the series since 1892, but the Gophers have a win as recently as 2014.

What can we expect in the matchup? For that, let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how Michigan and Minnesota compare in this Big Ten game.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 105-91-1 against the spread with a 53.6 win percentage.

Michigan vs. Minnesota score prediction

As expected, the simulations are siding with the Wolverines against the Gophers.

SP+ predicts that Michigan will defeat Minnesota by a projected score of 27 to 15.

The model forecasts the Wolverines will win the game by an expected 12 points.

And it gives Michigan a strong 77 percent chance of outright victory.

Point spread

Michigan is a 9.5 point favorite against Minnesota, according to the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 35.5 points for the game.

And it set the moneyline odds for Michigan at -350 and for Minnesota at +280 to win outright.

If you’re using this projection to bet on the game, you should take ...

• Michigan -9.5
• Wolverines to win -350
• Bet over 35.5 points

Computer prediction

Other analytical models also pick the Wolverines to handle the Gophers at home.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Michigan is projected to win the game in 76.9 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations.

That leaves Minnesota as the expected winner in the remaining 32.1 percent of sims.

Michigan is projected to be 11.2 points better than Minnesota on the same field in both teams’ current composition, enough to cover the spread.

The index predicts Michigan will win 7.5 games this season and has a 10.9 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff.

FPI’s metrics project Minnesota will win 4.9 games and has a 32.2 percent shot at becoming bowl eligible.

How to watch Michigan vs. Minnesota

When: Sat., Sept. 28
Time: 12 p.m. ET | 11 a.m. CT
TV: Fox network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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