Michigan vs. Washington football prediction: What the analytics say

Expert predictions for Michigan vs. Washington by the football model that picks winners.

Michigan vs. Washington football prediction / Joe Nicholson-Imagn Images

A new-look Big Ten game brought to us by realignment kicks off this weekend as No. 10 Michigan hits the road against Washington in a rematch of last year’s national championship game in college football’s Week 6 action on Saturday.

Michigan is 2-0 in Big Ten play after getting past USC and Minnesota at home, winning games by an average of 3 points and sitting 130th nationally in passing output, but playing behind a solid defense and a strong ground game.

Washington is 8 points away from being undefeated with losses to Washington State and Rutgers and 1-1 in Big Ten games, ranking 10th in FBS in scoring defense, and averaging nearly 300 yards per game passing with Will Rogers in at quarterback.

Looking ahead to this week’s matchup, let’s check out the latest college football predictions from the Football Power Index computer prediction model.

The model simulates every NCAA college football game 20,000 times and uses key analytics from both teams and picks winners based on a projected scoring margin per game.

Michigan vs. Washington predictions

So far, the models are siding with the home team in this one.

Washington is the favorite on the index, projected to win the game in 57.7 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations.

That leaves Michigan as the expected winner in the remaining 42.3 percent of sims.

In total, the Huskies won out in 11,540 of the model’s 20,000 projections, while the Wolverines came out ahead in the other 8,460 simulations.

Washington is projected to be just 2.9 points better than Michigan on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.

If so, that would be just enough for the Huskies to cover the spread.

That’s because Washington is a 2.5 point favorite against Michigan, according to the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel set the total at 41.5 points for the game.

And it listed the moneyline odds for Washington at -135 and for Michigan at +115 to win outright.

But most bettors are taking a slightly different view of the game.

A solid majority of bets, 62 percent of them, are projecting that Michigan will beat the Huskies in an upset, or keep the game under 3 points.

The remaining 38 percent of wagers forecast that Washington will win the game and cover the spread, according to the latest spread consensus picks.

Michigan is sixth among Big Ten teams with a 9.6 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff and will win 7.4 games this season, according to FPI’s metrics.

That model gives Washington a win total projection of 5.7 games, with a 55.7 percent chance to become bowl eligible.

College Football Power Index

Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance. 

Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting, and a team’s schedule.

Teams are ranked not in order of talent like in other rankings, but by a projected point margin per game against an average team on a neutral field.

AP top 25 rankings

First-place votes in parentheses

1. Alabama (40)
2. Texas (19)
3. Ohio State (4)
4. Tennessee
5. Georgia
6. Oregon
7. Penn State
8. Miami
9. Missouri
10. Michigan
11. USC
12. Ole Miss
13. LSU
14. Notre Dame
15. Clemson
16. Iowa State
17. BYU
18. Utah
19. Oklahoma
20. Kansas State
21. Boise State
22. Louisville
23. Indiana
24. Illinois
25. UNLV and Texas A&M (tie)

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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