Michigan vs. Washington score prediction by expert college football model

What the analytics predict for Michigan vs. Washington in this Week 6 college football game.

Michigan vs. Washington score prediction / Rick Osentoski-Imagn Images

A new-look Big Ten football matchup brought to us by conference realignment is also a rematch of the national title game, as No. 10 Michigan goes on the road against Washington in college football’s Week 6 action on Saturday. Let’s check in with the latest prediction for the game from the expert model that picks winners.

Michigan is 4-1 overall with a loss to Texas at home but a solid 2-0 in Big Ten play behind some strong defense and a good ground game, if not much of a passing attack, ranking 130th among 134 FBS teams when putting the ball in the air.

Both teams are shadows of their former selves when they met in last season’s CFP national championship game, each losing star quarterbacks and other major offensive personnel, not to mention their head coaches.

What do the experts think of this Big Ten matchup?

For that, let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how Michigan and Washington compare on the same field in this Week 6 college football game.

Michigan vs. Washington score prediction

So far, the simulations are siding with the home team against the defending champs, but by the narrowest of margins.

SP+ predicts that Washington will defeat Michigan by a projected score of 24 to 23 and to win the game by an expected margin of just 0.7 points.

The model gives the Huskies a slight edge, at 52 percent to win the game outright.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 133-114-2 against the spread with a 53.8 win percentage.

Michigan vs. Washington game odds

Washington is a 2.5 point favorite against Michigan, according to the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel set the total at 41.5 points for the game.

And it set the moneyline odds for Washington at -134 and for Michigan at +112 to win outright.

If you’re using this prediction to bet on the game, you should take ...

• Michigan +2.5
• Washington to win -134
• Bet over 41.5 points

Computer prediction

Other analytical models also expect the Huskies will take down the Wolverines.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Washington is projected to win the game in a majority 57.9 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations.

That leaves Michigan as the expected winner in the other 42.1 percent of sims.

Washington is projected to be just 2.9 points better than Michigan on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.

Bettors are taking a different view of the game, according to the latest spread consensus picks.

About 62 percent of bets forecast that Michigan will upset Washington or keep the game under 2.5 points.

And the other 38 percent of wagers suggest the Huskies will win the game and cover the spread.

Michigan is sixth among Big Ten teams with an 8.9 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff and will win 7.4 games this season, according to the FPI’s metrics.

That model gives Washington a win projection total of 5.8 games and a 56.1 percent shot at becoming bowl eligible.

How to watch Michigan vs. Washington

When: Sat., Oct. 5
Time: 7:30 p.m. ET | 4:30 p.m. PT
TV: NBC network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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