Michigan vs. Washington prediction: Who wins, and why?

What to watch for as Michigan travels to Washington in this Week 6 college football game, with our updated prediction.

Michigan vs. Washington game prediction / Rick Osentoski-Imagn Images

One of the Big Ten’s new-look conference games gets underway this weekend as No. 10 Michigan hits the road against Washington in college football’s Week 6 action on Saturday night. Let’s check in with our updated prediction for the game.

Back in January, this was college football’s national championship game. Now in October, it’s a regular Big Ten game after conference realignment rewrote college football’s national boundaries.

But in the intervening months, both Michigan and Washington are very different teams, at quarterback, all over their rosters, and on the sideline with new head coaches.

So far, the Huskies are 1-1 in Big Ten play and coming off a loss to Rutgers, while the Wolverines are perfect through 2 conference games but own a loss to Texas earlier this year.

What can we expect in the matchup? Here’s what you should watch for as Washington hosts Michigan in this Week 6 college football game, with our updated prediction.

Michigan vs. Washington prediction: What to watch

1. At the line. Washington’s Jonah Coleman has been a key stabilizing force for this offense, rushing for over 100 yards in 3 games and coming off a 148-yard effort last week.

While he averages 7.2 yards per carry, 3 of his 4 touchdowns came in Week 1. Michigan is 6th in rush defense nationally and surrenders just 2.75 yards per carry.

2. On the ground. By far Michigan’s offensive strength is running the football. Even last week when it averaged just 3.6 yards per carry, it’s this backfield that carries the team, rushing for 8 touchdowns the last 3 games.

Rutgers posted 5.6 ypc when it beat the Huskies, whose relative defensive weakness is against the run, ranking 51st nationally by allowing 122 yards per game.

3. Going deep. Washington quarterback Will Rogers will test Michigan’s vulnerable secondary, completing 76 percent of his passing attempts, is yet to throw an interception, and is posting around 9 yards per pass. The Wolverines are 103rd in FBS allowing 249 air yards per game.

What the analytics say

Most analytical models are giving the Huskies a slight edge over the Wolverines.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Washington is projected to win the game in a majority 58.1 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations.

That leaves Michigan as the expected winner in the remaining 41.9 percent of sims.

Washington is projected to be 2.9 points better than Michigan on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.

More ... Michigan vs. Washington prediction: What the analytics say

Who is favored?

Washington is a 1.5 point favorite against Michigan, according to the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel listed the total at 41.5 points for the game.

And it set the moneyline odds for Washington at -120 and for Michigan at +100 to win outright.

What the bettors are saying

Michigan comes out ahead of Washington, according to the latest spread consensus picks.

About 58 percent of bets predict the Wolverines will either lose by a single point or pull the upset.

And the remaining 42 percent of wagers expect the Huskies will win the game and cover the spread.

Michigan vs. Washington prediction: Who wins?

Going over 2,000 miles from home in a hostile stadium where the home team has won 17 straight games and wants to avenge last year’s national title loss is definitely a tough task.

Especially when you can’t throw the ball. Michigan ranks just 129th out of 134 FBS teams in passing production, and even quarterback Alex Orji’s rushing output that was meant to give the offense another dimension has failed to really materialize so far.

But there are some holes here that the Wolverines can exploit.

Washington has struggled containing good backs, and Kalel Mullings has the blocking and the physicality to churn out gainers up the middle and the speed to cut outside and get behind the Huskies’ midfield tacklers.

And despite getting good output from Rogers, the Huskies are highly vulnerable in pass protection, allowing 7 sacks in 4 weeks and a multitude of other pressures, throwing the attack out of rhythm to rank 82nd in third down tries and 117th in red zone offense.

Getting to the quarterback, stopping the run, and having the more productive backfield has been the recipe for Michigan’s success so far, and we’re sticking with it while it lasts.

College Football HQ picks ...

• Michigan wins 23-20
• In an upset
• And hits the over

More ... Michigan vs. Washington score prediction by expert model

How to watch Michigan vs. Washington

When: Sat., Oct. 5
Time: 7:30 p.m. ET | 4:30 p.m. PT
TV: NBC network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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