Predicting each game on Michigan's 2024 football schedule

Early predictions for every game on the Michigan Wolverines' 2024 football schedule coming off their national championship.

Predictions for every game on the Michigan Wolverines 2024 football schedule. / Junfu Han / USA TODAY NETWORK

Michigan comes into a historic 2024 football season as defending national champions for the first time since 1997, but the Wolverines will embark on their title defense a very different team after undergoing changes across the roster and the coaching staff.

With the Big Ten expanding to 18 members and the College Football Playoff to 12 teams, there's plenty more room for competition for Michigan and everyone else. Using the ESPN power index analytics model as our guide, let's make some early predictions for the Wolverines this fall.

Predicting each Michigan football game in 2024

1. Fresno State

Michigan's odds: 89.2%

While the Wolverines are listed as early 21-point favorites, the Bulldogs won nine games a year ago and return their starting quarterback and the bulk of a decent offense, but Michigan should have the edge going against Fresno's front seven alignment.

2. Texas

Michigan's odds: 34.9%

A huge challenge out of the gate at home against the SEC-bound Longhorns, armed with lethal skill threats including quarterback Quinn Ewers, and a major test for Michigan's returning defensive talent against a battery of legit deep-field targets.

3. Arkansas State

Michigan's odds: 92.3%

The Red Wolves ranked a paltry 107th nationally in scoring defense a year ago, allowing more than 31 points per game on average, and surrendered 70 points in their one Power Five game last season, on the road against Oklahoma.

4. USC

Michigan's odds: 65.7%

A good sign for the Wolverines to get this number against the Big Ten newcomer Trojans, in addition to Michigan being a 9.5-point favorite on the books in this home tilt. But if USC does finally make those long-awaited defensive improvements, this game could go either way.

5. Minnesota

Michigan's odds: 84.4%

There's a new regime on defense for the Gophers, who are also making an important change at quarterback in the hopes of reviving an offense that posted all of 19 points per game last fall.

6. at Washington

Michigan's odds: 60.7%

A lower number for the Wolverines in this cross-country road game against a Huskies team bringing on a new coach and a pile of new players all over the field via the portal after an exodus of the skill that played against Michigan in the national title game last year.

7. at Illinois

Michigan's odds: 79.6%

Illinois' offense lost its top receiver and the defense lost its best overall player. That offense was good for more than 24 points per game, and despite the presence of Johnny Newton, the Illini defense surrendered nearly 31 points each time out.

8. Michigan State

Michigan's odds: 86.7%

Michigan is a 21.5-point favorite against its in-state rivals, undergoing a regime change with Jonathan Smith in at head coach, who brought in Aidan Chiles to play quarterback. He's young and low on experience, but with a very high ceiling.

9. Oregon

Michigan's odds: 34.5%

Michigan is actually getting the same number Ohio State is in this game, but the Wolverines have the luxury of hosting the Ducks to the Big House. Oregon might have college football's best receiver corps, a serious test for Michigan's perimeter defenses.

10. at Indiana

Michigan's odds: 83.1%

IU could play some better offense after bringing on transfer quarterback Kurtis Rourke, but otherwise this is a team full of question marks that new coach Curt Cignetti is yet to answer.

11. Northwestern

Michigan's odds: 85.4%

Eight expected starters return on a pretty good Wildcats defense, but David Braun still has to find a stable option at the quarterback position, something he's yet to do.

12. at Ohio State

Michigan's odds: 25.8%

Michigan used three straight wins over its arch-rival to propel the program to a national title, but with all the replacements the defending champs have to make, combined with the Buckeyes retaining key pieces and making big transfer gains, the models don't favor UM this time in The Game. Nor do the oddsmakers, who are taking OSU by 10 points this year.

Michigan final record: 9-3

Michigan Football Schedule 2024

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