Missouri vs. Texas A&M football prediction: What the analytics say

Expert predictions for Missouri vs. Texas A&M by the football model that picks winners.

Missouri vs. Texas A&M football prediction / Matt Pendleton-Imagn Images

A pair of ranked SEC football rivals meet up in the Lone Star State, both looking to avoid their first loss in conference play as No. 9 Missouri visits No. 25 Texas A&M on Saturday.

Missouri took last week off, but has played things close the two weeks prior, beating Boston College and Vanderbilt by a combined 11 points heading into its first road game of the year.

Texas A&M beat Florida on the road and is coming off a victory against Arkansas in Arlington last weekend working behind an offense that ranks 13th in rushing but 116th in passing.

Looking ahead to this week’s matchup, let’s check out the latest college football predictions from the Football Power Index computer prediction model.

The model simulates every NCAA college football game 20,000 times and uses key analytics from both teams and picks winners based on a projected scoring margin per game.

Missouri vs. Texas A&M prediction

So far, the models are giving a very slight edge to the road team this week.

Missouri is a narrow favorite, projected to win the game in 51.8 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations.

That leaves Texas A&M as the expected winner in the remaining 48.2 percent of sims.

In total, the Tigers won out in 10,360 of the model’s simulations, while the Aggies came out ahead in the other 9,640 projections.

The index foresees a very close game, as Missouri is projected to be just 0.7 points better than Texas A&M on the same field in both teams’ current form, according to the model’s latest forecast.

If so, that would put this game down as an upset.

That’s because Texas A&M is a 1.5 point favorite against Missouri, according to the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 48.5 points for the game.

And it set the moneyline odds for Texas A&M at -134 and for Missouri at +112 to win outright.

But most bettors are also expecting an upset in this one, according to the latest spread consensus picks.

A solid majority, 67 percent of them, predict that Missouri will either win the game by a single point or, more likely, beat the Aggies outright.

The remaining 33 percent of wagers forecast that Texas A&M will win the game and cover the spread.

Missouri is sixth among SEC teams with a 32.4 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff and will win 9 games this season, according to the FPI’s metrics.

That model gives Texas A&M a 12.1 percent chance at the playoff and a win projection total of 8 games.

College Football Power Index

Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance. 

Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting, and a team’s schedule.

Teams are ranked not in order of talent like in other rankings, but by a projected point margin per game against an average team on a neutral field.

AP top 25 rankings

First-place votes in parentheses

1. Alabama (40)
2. Texas (19)
3. Ohio State (4)
4. Tennessee
5. Georgia
6. Oregon
7. Penn State
8. Miami
9. Missouri
10. Michigan
11. USC
12. Ole Miss
13. LSU
14. Notre Dame
15. Clemson
16. Iowa State
17. BYU
18. Utah
19. Oklahoma
20. Kansas State
21. Boise State
22. Louisville
23. Indiana
24. Illinois
25. UNLV and Texas A&M (tie)

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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