Nebraska Cornhuskers vs. Illinois Fighting Illini Prediction: Who Wins, and Why?

What to expect as Nebraska and Illinois meet in this Week 4 college football game, with our updated prediction.

Nebraska Cornhuskers vs. Illinois Fighting Illini Prediction / Dylan Widger-Imagn Images

Nebraska and Illinois meet on Friday night in this battle of ranked Big Ten rivals, each looking to take the next big step forward. Here’s what you need to watch for, with our updated prediction.

Not many people predicted it back in the preseason, but Friday night’s matchup between Nebraska and Illinois has become must-see TV for college football fans, as two undefeated, ranked Big Ten rivals stake a claim to emerge as one of the conference’s surprise contenders this season.

Nebraska is trending up so far, coming off a 5-7 outing last season by starting 3-0 behind the play of 5-star quarterback Dylan Raiola and a strong defensive unit that ranks among football’s 10 best when it comes to scoring, perfect through 3 games for the first time since 2016.

Illinois also won 5 games last season and is 3-0 for the first time since 2011, also playing some of the nation’s best defense, and owning a statement win over then-ranked Kansas two weeks ago.

Illinois beat Nebraska, 20-7, last season, but the Cornhuskers own the series, 14-6-1, over the Illini all-time.

Nebraska vs. Illinois prediction, preview

Nebraska vs. Illinois Prediction / Ron Johnson-Imagn Images

When Illinois has the ball

So far, Illinois quarterback Luke Altmyer has looked solid in Barry Lunney’s offense, passing for 647 yards and 6 touchdowns through 3 games while completing 69.2 percent of his pass attempts.

He has credible targets in wide receivers Pat Bryant, who has 15 grabs for 235 yards, and Zakhari Franklin, who caught 16 passes for 193 yards, to go against a Cornhuskers secondary that has allowed just 2 passing touchdowns on the year.

Illinois has 10 pass plays of 20-plus yards this season, and its receivers could find themselves in a lot of one-on-one coverage as Nebraska applies pressure near the line to contain the Illini ground game and Altmyer, who brings a tactical mobility that can extend plays.

Kaden Feagin has 173 rushing yards so far and is averaging a good 4.4 yards per carry, and he’s running behind a veteran offensive line that will have to stand up against a dominant Husker front seven.

Nebraska has allowed 20 points total through 3 games, picking up 9 sacks and allowing just over 70 rushing yards per game from opponents.

When Nebraska has the ball

Raiola has played up to its preseason hype so far. The 5-star recruit who head coach Matt Rhule flipped from Georgia has infused not just the Cornhuskers’ offense, but the whole program, with a dose of long-awaited confidence.

He’s completing just under 74 percent of his throws, averaging 223 yards per game, hitting 5 TD passes and has thrown just 1 interception. And he has a promising supporting cast.

Oregon transfer Dante Dowdell leads the way with 184 yards, with Emmett Johnson right behind at 124, and Isaiah Neyor (12 rec, 187 yards) leads a promising group of receivers who can spread out defenses while the offense runs the ball behind a strong protection unit that has allowed just 1 sack and 12 tackles for loss.

Nebraska faces an Illinois defense that is allowing just 277 total yards per game and 8.7 points on average, and the Illini rank second in the Big Ten with 9 takeaways and are surrendering just 4.6 yards per play.

Nebraska vs. Illinois odds

Lines are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Nebraska: -7.5 (-110)
Illinois: +7.5 (-110)

Over 42.5 points: -110
Under 42.5 points: -110

Nebraska vs. Illinois Prediction

Altmyer can skirt around the Huskers’ pass rush early on and connect with his receivers on a series of intermediate gains that will frustrate this secondary and keep the game close.

And the Illini have the blockers and the tonnage in the backfield to credibly peel some yards off Nebraska’s front alignment that will convert some third downs and extend drives.

But home-field advantage and the superior defensive front, and some efficient, reliable play from Raiola, should be the combination that helps the Cornhuskers pull it out in the late stages.

College Football HQ picks ...

• Nebraska wins 23-20
• Doesn’t cover the spread
• And hits the over

More ... Nebraska vs. Illinois score prediction by expert model

Nebraska vs. Illinois schedule

When: Fri., Sept. 20
Time: 7 p.m. Central
TV: Fox network

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