Nebraska vs. Illinois score prediction by expert college football model

What the analytics predict for Nebraska vs. Illinois in this Week 4 college football game.

Nebraska Cornhuskers vs. Illinois Fighting Illini Prediction / Dylan Widger-Imagn Images

Friday night football goes under the lights in this Big Ten opener with a battle of ranked, undefeated conference foes on the same field as No. 24 Illinois goes on the road against No. 22 Nebraska in college football’s Week 4 action on Saturday.

Illinois owns its best start since the 2011 season at 3-0 overall and has a victory against then-ranked Kansas on its resume, while playing the nation’s 13th ranked scoring defense, allowing opponents to score just under 7 points per game on average.

Nebraska hasn’t been 3-0 since the 2016 season and has taken a big step in the right direction with former 5-star recruit Dylan Raiola in at quarterback, but also playing some strong defense of its own, coming into this week surrendering just 6.7 points per game, the 8th best mark nationally.

What can we expect from this Big Ten matchup this weekend?

For that, let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how Illinois and Nebraska compare in this Week 4 college football game.

Nebraska vs. Illinois score prediction

The simulations are siding with the home team, but in a close game.

SP+ predicts that Nebraska will defeat Illinois by a projected score of 24 to 16 and to win the game by an expected 8 points.

The model gives the Cornhuskers a strong 71 percent chance of outright victory.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 75-68 against the spread with a 52.4 win percentage.

Point spread

Nebraska is a narrow 7.5 point favorite against Illinois, according to the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook, which set the total at 42.5 points for the game.

FanDuel lists the moneyline odds for Nebraska at -310 and for Illinois at +245 to win outright.

If you’re using this projection to bet on the game, you should take ...

• Nebraska -7.5
• Huskers to win -310
• Bet under 42.5 points

Computer prediction

Other analytical models also suggest the Cornhuskers will win this Big Ten opener at home.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Nebraska comes out the projected winner in the majority 69.4 percent of the computer’s updated simulations.

That leaves Illinois as the expected winner in the remaining 30.6 percent of sims.

The index predicts that Nebraska will be 7.7 points better than Illinois on the same field, just enough for the Cornhuskers to cover the spread.

Nebraska is sixth among Big Ten teams with a 12.4 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff and will win 8 games this season, according to the FPI’s metrics.

That model forecasts that Illinois will win 7 games and has a 3.5 percent shot at the 12-team playoff.

Nebraska vs. Illinois schedule

When: Fri., Sept. 20
Time: 7 p.m. Central
TV: Fox network

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