Nebraska vs. Illinois picks, predictions: Week 4 college football odds, lines

Expert picks and predictions for the Nebraska vs. Illinois matchup this weekend.

Nebraska vs. Illinois picks, predictions / Dylan Widger-Imagn Images

College football returns to action this weekend with an early Friday night start, featuring a matchup of ranked Big Ten rivals on the same field as No. 24 Illinois travels to No. 22 Nebraska in Week 4.

Illinois beat a then-ranked Kansas two weeks ago and plays a scoring defense that ranks among the 10 best teams in the nation, as does Nebraska, which owns a big win over Colorado this season.

Looking ahead to this week's matchup, let's check out the latest college football predictions from the Football Power Index computer projection model.

The model simulates every NCAA college football game 20,000 times and uses key analytics from both teams to predict outcomes based on a projected scoring margin per game.

Nebraska vs. Illinois picks, predictions

The computers favor the home team this week.

Nebraska is projected to win the game in a majority 69.3 percent of simulations, or 13,680 of the predictions made by the model.

Conversely, Illinois is expected to come out as the winner in the remaining 30.7 percent of sims.

The models currently forecast that Nebraska will be 7.7 points better than Illinois on the same field.

But that wouldn't be enough to cover the spread.

That's because Nebraska is an 8 point favorite against Illinois, according to the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook, which set the total at 42.5 points for the game.

FanDuel lists the moneyline odds for Nebraska at -320 and for Illinois at +260.

The computer projects Nebraska will win 8 games this season and is sixth among Big Ten teams with an 11.9 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff.

Illinois will win 7 games this year by the computer's metrics, and has a 3.1 percent shot at the playoff.

College Football Power Index

Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance. 

Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting, and a team’s schedule.

Teams are ranked not in order of talent like in other rankings, but by a projected point margin per game against an average team on a neutral field.

AP top 25 rankings

First-place votes in parentheses

1. Texas (35)
2. Georgia (23)
3. Ohio State (5)
4. Alabama
5. Ole Miss
6. Tennessee
7. Missouri
8. Miami
9. Oregon
10. Penn State
11. USC
12. Utah
13. Kansas State
14. Oklahoma State
15. Oklahoma
16. LSU
17. Notre Dame
18. Michigan
19. Louisville
20. Iowa State
21. Clemson
22. Nebraska
23. Northern Illinois
24. Illinois
25. Texas A&M

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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