Nebraska vs. Indiana football prediction: What the analytics say

Expert prediction for Nebraska vs. Indiana by the football model that picks winners.

Nebraska vs. Indiana football prediction / Dylan Widger-Imagn Images

Big Ten football returns to the field this weekend as Nebraska hits the road against No. 16 Indiana in college football’s Week 8 action on Saturday. Let’s take a look at the latest prediction for the game by an expert football model that picks winners.

Nebraska is on a 2-game win streak since the loss to Illinois, the only blemish on its 5-1 record this season, including a 2-1 mark in Big Ten play, and hoping to put on a good show against the resurgent Hoosiers in this crucial road matchup.

Indiana is 6-0 for the second time ever, thanks to a rejuvenated offense that ranks 2nd nationally with 47.5 points per game behind the play of quarterback Kurtis Rourke, who averages over 315 passing yards per game, good for 10th in FBS, quite a turnaround for head coach Curt Cignetti.

Looking ahead to this week’s matchup, let’s check out the latest college football predictions from the Football Power Index computer prediction model.

The model simulates every NCAA college football game 20,000 times and uses key analytics from both teams and picks winners based on a projected scoring margin per game.

Nebraska vs. Indiana predictions

So far, the models are giving a huge advantage to the Hoosiers over the Cornhuskers.

Indiana is the big favorite on the index, which gives the team a strong 76.4 percent chance to win the game, according to its most recent projections for the matchup.

That leaves Nebraska as the expected winner in the remaining 23.6 percent of sims.

In total, the Hoosiers came out ahead in 15,280 of the index’s simulations of the game, while the Cornhuskers won out in the other 4,720 predictions.

And the index is predicting a double-digit victory for the Hoosiers on the scoreboard.

Indiana is projected to be 10.9 points better than Nebraska on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.

If so, that would be enough for the Hoosiers to cover the spread.

That’s because Indiana is a 6.5 point favorite against Nebraska, according to the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 50.5 points for the game.

And it set the moneyline odds for Indiana at -240 and for Nebraska at +200 to win outright.

What the bettors say

A plurality of bettors are also expecting the Hoosiers to take care of business in this Big Ten road tilt, according to the latest spread consensus picks.

Indiana is getting 65 percent of bets to win the game and cover the spread to win by at least a touchdown.

Nebraska is getting the other 35 percent of wagers to either pull off the upset on the road, or keep the game under 7 points.

Nebraska vs. Indiana projections

Indiana is fourth among Big Ten teams with a 46.7 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff and will win 10.3 games this season, according to the FPI’s metrics.

The model projects the Hoosiers will be 14.2 points better than an average opponent on a neutral field, ranking No. 15 nationally in that category.

And the index gives Nebraska a win total projection of 7.1 games and a 1.6 percent chance at the 12-team playoff.

The Cornhuskers are 6.4 points better than an average opponent, according to the model, good for No. 43 among 134 FBS teams.

College Football Power Index

Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance. 

Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting, and a team’s schedule.

Teams are ranked not in order of talent like in other rankings, but by a projected point margin per game against an average team on a neutral field.

AP top 25 rankings

First-place votes in parentheses

1. Texas (56)
2. Oregon (6)
3. Penn State
4. Ohio State
5. Georgia
6. Miami
7. Alabama
8. LSU
9. Iowa State
10. Clemson
11. Tennessee
12. Notre Dame
13. BYU
14. Texas A&M
15. Boise State
16. Indiana
17. Kansas State
18. Ole Miss
19. Missouri
20. Pittsburgh
21. SMU
22. Illinois
23. Army
24. Michigan
25. Navy

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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