Nebraska vs. Indiana score prediction by expert college football model

What the analytics predict for Nebraska vs. Indiana in this Week 8 college football game from an expert model that picks winners and projects scores.

Nebraska vs. Indiana score prediction / Marc Lebryk-Imagn Images

Big Ten football is back this weekend as Nebraska goes on the road against No. 16 Indiana in college football’s Week 8 matchup on Saturday. Let’s check in with the latest prediction for the game by using an expert football model that picks winners and projects scores.

Nebraska has won 2 straight games since the loss to Illinois, the only negative on its 5-1 record this season, including a 2-1 mark in Big Ten play, and needing a good performance against the resurgent Hoosiers in this crucial road matchup to keep its conference hopes alive.

Indiana is 6-0 for the second time ever under first-year head coach Curt Cignetti, thanks to an offense that ranks 2nd nationally with 47.5 points per game behind the play of quarterback Kurtis Rourke, who averages over 315 passing yards, good for 10th in FBS.

What do the analytics suggest for this Big Ten matchup?

For that, let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how Nebraska and Indiana compare in this Week 8 college football game.

Nebraska vs. Indiana score prediction

So far, the models are sticking with the Hoosiers to take down the Cornhuskers this week.

SP+ predicts that Indiana will defeat Nebraska by a projected score of 25 to 20 and to win the game by an expected margin of 5.2 points.

The model gives the Hoosiers a 63 percent chance of outright victory.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 180-167-3 against the spread with a 51.9 win percentage after going 26-26 (50%) last weekend.

Nebraska vs. Indiana odds, picks

Indiana is a 6.5 point favorite against Nebraska, according to the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 50.5 points for the game.

And it set the moneyline odds for Indiana at -230 and for Nebraska at +195 to win outright.

If you’re using this prediction to bet on the game, you should take ...

• Nebraska +6.5
• Indiana to win -230
• Bet under 40.5 points

A plurality of bettors are siding with the Hoosiers over the Cornhuskers, according to the latest spread consensus picks for the game.

Indiana is getting 63 percent of bets to win the game and cover the spread.

The other 37 percent of wagers project Nebraska will either win the game in an upset or keep the score within the line.

Computer prediction

Other analytical models also favor the Hoosiers to stay undefeated against the Cornhuskers.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Indiana is projected to win the game outright in the majority 75.7 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations of the matchup.

That leaves Nebraska as the expected winner in the remaining 24.3 percent of sims.

Indiana is projected to be 10.9 points better than Nebraska on the same field, according to the model’s latest forecast.

Indiana is fourth among Big Ten teams with a 46 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff and will win 10.2 games this season, according to the FPI’s metrics.

That model gives Nebraska a win total prediction of 7.1 games and a 1.7 percent shot at the playoff.

How to watch Nebraska vs. Indiana

When: Sat., Oct. 19
Time: 12 p.m. ET | 11 a.m. CT
TV: Fox network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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