Nebraska vs. Indiana prediction: Who wins, and why?

What to watch for as Nebraska and Indiana meet in this Week 8 college football game, with our updated prediction for the matchup.

Nebraska vs. Indiana Prediction / Dylan Widger-Imagn Images

A notable Big Ten matchups kicks off this weekend as undefeated, No. 16 Indiana welcomes challenger Nebraska in college football’s Week 8 action on Saturday. Here’s what you should watch for as the Cornhuskers and Hoosiers face off, with our updated prediction for the game.

Indiana is 6-0 for the second time ever and the first time since 1967, emerging as bowl eligible at the earliest point in program history, quite a turnaround for the school under first-year head coach Curt Cignetti.

Nebraska has taken important steps forward, too, with a 7-point loss to ranked Illinois the only blemish on the team’s 5-1 record so far, but needs to pass this important test in order to avoid losing the momentum it’s built up to this point in the season.

What can we expect as the Cornhuskers and Hoosiers meet in this Big Ten matchup?

Here’s what you should watch for as Nebraska and Indiana square off in this Week 8 college football game, with our updated prediction.

Nebraska vs. Indiana prediction: What to watch

1. On the ground. For all the attention Indiana rightly gets for its vertical offense, it’s also solid running the ball, ranking 31st nationally with over 200 yards per game and is 3rd in FBS with 23 rushing touchdowns this season.

But it faces a tall order against a Cornhuskers run stop that is 7th nationally, allowing just 84.2 yards per game on average and is the only FBS team yet to allow a touchdown on the ground.

2. Red zone. Part of the Hoosiers’ offensive success has come when in scoring position, ranking 29th in FBS with a 92 percent success rate, with 81 percent of those scores (30 of 34) being touchdowns.

Nebraska is No. 11 nationally in red zone defense, allowing opponents to score 69 percent of the time, and is 5th in FBS by giving teams just 13 total opportunities to move the ball inside the 20. 

Indiana, however, is No. 1 in the country with 37 red zone chances on offense.

3. At the line. While the Hoosiers have been stellar in protecting quarterback Kurtis Rourke this season, the line is yet to be challenged in a way the Cornhuskers front seven will be able to.

Nebraska is No. 1 in the Big Ten in sacks and tackles for loss recorded, and the rotation is responsible for 9 sacks over its last 2 games and have caused 18 combined negative plays in that time.

What the analytics say

Most analytical models give the Hoosiers a decided edge against the Cornhuskers in this game.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction tool that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times and picks winners.

That model gives Indiana a 75.7 percent chance to win the game outright in the computer’s most recent simulations of the matchup.

Nebraska comes out ahead in the remaining 24.3 percent of sims.

Indiana is projected to be 10.9 points better than Nebraska on the same field, according to the model’s latest forecast of the game.

More ... Nebraska vs. Indiana picks: What the analytics say

Who is favored?

Indiana is a 6.5 point favorite against Nebraska, according to the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel set the total at 49.5 points for the game (Over -105, Under -115).

And it lists the moneyline odds for Indiana at -230 and for Nebraska at +195 to win outright.

A majority of bettors are expecting the Hoosiers to handle the Cornhuskers and stay undefeated, according to the latest spread consensus picks for the game.

Indiana is getting 63 percent of bets to win the game and cover the spread, winning by at least a touchdown.

The other 37 percent of wagers project that Nebraska will either win the game in an upset, or keep the game under a touchdown.

Nebraska vs. Indiana prediction: Who wins?

While the Hoosiers present a credible challenge against the pass, ranking 21st nationally and 5th in yards per completion, the defense has not been seriously challenged.

Indiana has fared less successfully in Big Ten play, allowing 266 passing yards per game and 5 touchdowns in the air against conference opponents.

And the Indiana passing offense, while it boasts a productive quarterback and a number of quality outlets who can stretch the field, could struggle to build its customary momentum as Nebraska’s physical front seven generates pressure and affects Rourke’s rhythm.

This could honestly go either way, considering Indiana’s potent vertical game, but also noting its relative lack of quality opponents and the likelihood of the Cornhuskers’ front potentially wreaking enough havoc to cancel out what Rourke & Co. can do downfield.

We’ll stay with the favorite, but the line is big enough where we feel confident taking the points in case Nebraska does pull off the upset.

College Football HQ picks ...

• Indiana wins 30-27
• Doesn’t cover the spread
• And hits the over

More ... Nebraska vs. Indiana score prediction by expert model

How to watch Nebraska vs. Indiana

When: Sat., Oct. 19
Time: 12 p.m. ET | 11 a.m. CT
TV: Fox network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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