Nebraska vs. Northern Iowa score prediction by expert college football model

What the analytics predict for Nebraska vs. Northern Iowa in this Week 3 college football game.

Nebraska Cornhuskers vs. Northern Iowa Panthers Prediction / Dylan Widger-Imagn Images

So far, Dylan Raiola has proved to be what Nebraska fans hoped for, a five-star quarterback phenom who has the skill set to rescue the Cornhuskers offense and put this program back on the map. Now, coming off a statement non-conference win, he and the Huskers take the next step on that road, hosting Northern Iowa in college football's Week 3 action on Saturday.

There's a long road still to travel, especially when the Big Ten schedule gets underway, but so far Raiola is hitting over 73 percent of his pass attempts with no turnovers and Nebraska is 2-0.

He's coming off a 23 of 30 passing effort in a 28-10 victory over Colorado last week that was enough to propel the Cornhuskers back into the AP top 25 rankings.

But it was also Nebraska's strong defensive effort that won that game, sacking Shedeur Sanders five times while generating consistent pressure and recording a touchdown off a pick-six, now holding nine straight opponents to 24 points or fewer, the Huskers' longest such streak since 2009.

What can we expect from this matchup? For that, let's turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how Nebraska and Northern Iowa compare in this Week 3 college football game.

Nebraska vs. Northern Iowa score prediction

The simulations predictably favor the Cornhuskers to stand firm at home against this Missouri Valley Conference challenger.

SP+ predicts that Nebraska will defeat Northern Iowa by a projected score of 27 to 5 and to win the game by an expected 21.9 points.

But given that scoring 5 points exactly is somewhat difficult, let's round those numbers up and make the projection a more plausible 28 to 6 in favor of Nebraska, and a 22 point margin of victory.

The model gives the Huskers a 92 percent chance of outright victory.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 47-44 against the spread with a 51.6 win percentage.

Point spread

Nebraska is a 30.5 point favorite against Northern Iowa, according to the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook, which set the total at 47.5 points for the game.

FanDuel lists the moneyline odds for Nebraska at -20000 to win outright and for Northern Iowa at +3500.

If you're using this projection to bet on the game, you should take ...

• Northern Iowa +30.5
• Nebraska to win -20000
• Bet under 47.5 points

Computer prediction

Other analytical models also suggest the Cornhuskers will dominate the game.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Nebraska comes out the projected winner in 95.1 percent of the computer's updated simulations, while Northern Iowa wins out in the remaining 4.9 percent of sims.

The index forecasts that Nebraska will be 26.7 points better than Northern Iowa on the same field in both teams' current composition, not enough to cover this spread.

Nebraska vs. Northern Iowa game time

When: Sat., Sept. 14
Time: 6:30 p.m. Central
TV: Big Ten Network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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