North Carolina vs. Minnesota Game Prediction, Preview

What to expect as North Carolina and Minnesota meet in this Week 1 college football game, with our updated prediction.

North Carolina vs. Minnesota game predictions, picks / Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports

Week 1 of a historic 2024 college football season gets underway with an early Big Ten vs. ACC matchup as Minnesota welcomes North Carolina on Thursday night.

Carolina is undergoing yet more change on a defense that has struggled during Mack Brown's tenure, debuting new coordinator Geoff Collins, while Max Johnson and Conner Harrell will use the game to prove themselves worthy of the Tar Heels' starting quarterback position.

Minnesota is coming off its first losing season since the 2017 campaign, putting coach P.J. Fleck under some pressure to right the ship, and making a change at quarterback after posting subpar offensive numbers a year ago.

What can we expect from the matchup? Here's what to watch as North Carolina and Minnesota square off in this Week 1 college football game, with our updated prediction.

North Carolina vs. Minnesota game preview, prediction

When: Thurs., Aug. 29
Time: 9 p.m. Eastern
TV: Fox network

North Carolina vs. Minnesota game odds, lines

Courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

North Carolina -1.5 (-120)
Minnesota: +1.5 (-102)

North Carolina: -130 to win
Minnesota: +108 to win

Over 50.5 points (-115)
Under 50.5 points (-105)

FPI picks: UNC 54.3% | UM 45.7%

What to watch for

1. Battle at the line. With uncertainty at quarterback, Carolina will run its offense primarily through tailback Omarion Hampton to start things out.

He ran for 1,504 yards and scored 15 touchdowns a year ago and should find running lanes against a Gopher front seven that ranked 10th in the Big Ten by allowing 4.7 yards per carry and 149 yards per game.

2. Gophers' new QB. Veteran transfer Max Brosmer steps into a Gopher offense that lacked efficiency and explosive ability, to say the least, last season. Minnesota placed 119th in 10-yard passes, 93rd in 20-yarders, 104th in 30-yarders, and dead-last in 40 and 50-yard passes.

Brosmer has 8,713 yards and 70 touchdowns in his career, but needs more help from a receiver corps that had as many drops as contested grabs a year ago, per PFF's numbers.

3. Tar Heels in the air. Johnson and Harrell are battling for QB1 and will use this game as a proving ground, employing some of the ACC's better receivers against a vulnerable Minnesota pass defense.

J.J. Jones and Kobe Paysour will lead UNC's air attack along with tight end Bryson Nesbit opposite a Gopher D that lost safety Tyler Nubin and ranked 10th in passing TDs allowed per game and 13th in completion percentage allowed in the B1G last fall.

North Carolina vs. Minnesota prediction

Brosmer is a legitimate play-making threat, and is working behind a decent line with good enough skill at receiver, but his supporting cast is in doubt after an injury to tailback Darius Taylor.

Still, he and the Gophers' targets should find some holes against a Carolina defense that struggled all over the field last season.

As long as the Tar Heels can stay ahead of the chains against a susceptible Gophers run-stop and pass defense, combined with injuries on the Minnesota offense, they should get the slight edge.

College Football HQ picks...

• North Carolina wins 23-20
• Covers the spread
• And hits the under

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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