North Carolina vs. Minnesota picks, predictions: Week 1 college football odds, spread

Picks and predictions for North Carolina vs. Minnesota by the computer analytic model that picks college football games.

North Carolina vs. Minnesota football game picks, predictions / Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports

Thursday night football helps kick off the Week 1 college football schedule with an intriguing Big Ten vs. ACC matchup as North Carolina goes on the road against Minnesota.

Carolina took a 31-13 decision against the Gophers in Chapel Hill a year ago, the first stumble in what became Minnesota's first losing season since the 2017 campaign.

Both teams are undergoing notable change at quarterback: the Tar Heels having to replace the NFL-bound Drake Maye, and the Gophers installing transfer Max Brosmer to help aid a subpar passing attack that failed to generate momentum last season.

What do the experts think of the matchup? Let's see how the College Football Power Index computer prediction model projects the game.

North Carolina vs. Minnesota picks, predictions

North Carolina odds: The computer is siding with the Tar Heels, who have the slim 54.3 percent chance to win the game, according to models that simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Minnesota odds: Conversely, the model projects the Golden Gophers will take down Carolina in the remaining 45.7 percent of simulations.

Point spread: North Carolina is a 2 point favorite against Minnesota, according to the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook, which set the total at 49.5 points.

North Carolina predictions: The index projects the Tar Heels to be 4.7 points better than an average opponent on a neutral field, and to win 7.4 games this season.

Minnesota predictions: The model forecasts the Gophers to be a narrow 0.4 points better than opponents this season and to win 5.2 games with a 44 percent chance at being bowl eligible.

North Carolina vs. Minnesota game time, schedule

When: Thurs., Aug. 29
Time: 9 p.m. Eastern
TV: Fox network

College Football Power Index

Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance. 

Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting, and a team’s schedule.

Teams are ranked not in order of talent like in other rankings, but by a projected point margin per game against an average team on a neutral field.

College football rankings

According to AP top 25 poll

1. Georgia (46 first-place votes)
2. Ohio State (15)
3. Oregon (1)
4. Texas
5. Alabama
6. Ole Miss
7. Notre Dame
8. Penn State
9. Michigan
10. Florida State
11. Missouri
12. Utah
13. LSU
14. Clemson
15. Tennessee
16. Oklahoma
17. Oklahoma State
18. Kansas State
19. Miami
20. Texas A&M
21. Arizona
22. Kansas
23. USC
24. NC State
25. Iowa

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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